Results of the 'special poll' on Erdoğan's desk revealed

In his column for Kısa Dalga, under the headline "The results of the poll on Erdoğan's desk!", Sedat Bozkurt evaluated the polls published by various research companies in August.

Pointing out that the vote shares of the parties in research conducted during the same period show significant differences depending on the company, Bozkurt reported the results one by one.

Bozkurt shared the results of the research published by Sonar as follows:

“According to the latest Sonar poll results, the New Party's vote is 34.3 percent, the AKP's vote is 30.2 percent, and the CHP's is 5 percent. The CHP is in 6th place in this poll.”

It was stated that in the HBS research, the AKP received 28.6 percent, the New Party 21.3 percent, and the CHP 10.2 percent. Bozkurt also reported the results from the Betimar and ORC research as follows:

“According to Betimar, the AKP is at 35.8, the New Party at 19.3 percent, and the CHP at 9.4 percent. In the ORC poll, the AKP is at 32.5, the New Party at 19.4, and the CHP at 11.8.”

WHAT RESULTS EMERGED IN OTHER RESEARCH?

Bozkurt also shared the vote shares in research published by Özdemir, ALF, and Areda Survey:

“According to Özdemir, the AKP is at 35.8, the New Party at 22.6 percent, and the CHP at 9.1 percent. In the ALF poll, the AKP is at 34.2 percent, the New Party at 19.3, and the CHP at 12 percent. In the Areda Survey poll, the AKP is at 35.3, the New Party at 16.6 percent, and the CHP at 12.2 percent.”

Sedat Bozkurt stated that the research he listed were the polls he was able to access in August, noting that other research yielding different results may also have been conducted.

POLL RESULTS DISCUSSED WITHIN AKP LEADERSHIP

Bozkurt alleged that there are executives from two polling firms within the AKP leadership and that research results are discussed in Central Executive Board (MYK) meetings. Stating that there are also polls presented specifically to Erdoğan, Bozkurt reported that an evaluation was made based on the results of different research in the last MYK meeting.

Stating that there was a disagreement in the meeting in question regarding which poll was more realistic, Bozkurt wrote that after the debate, the results of the research presented specifically to Erdoğan were brought to the table.

Bozkurt shared the following inside information on the subject:

“President and AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attaches great importance to public opinion polls. For that reason, there are 2 polling firm executives in the party leadership. These poll results are evaluated in every MYK meeting.”

Bozkurt wrote that results that party leaders do not like can be hidden from them, and that Erdoğan has had special polls conducted for himself to prevent this:

“In parties, results that party leaders do not like are always hidden from them. Erdoğan has taken precautions against this. There are polls presented exclusively to him.”

Stating that the research prepared specifically for Erdoğan was brought to the agenda following the debate in the last MYK meeting, Bozkurt used the following expressions:

“When these poll results were being discussed in the last MYK meeting and a disagreement arose regarding ‘which one is more realistic,’ he immediately had the results of the poll presented specifically to him brought to the table.”

AKP IS AHEAD IN THE SPECIAL POLL PRESENTED TO ERDOĞAN

The results in the special poll reported by Sedat Bozkurt are as follows:

AKP 34 percent

New Party 20 percent

CHP 9 percent

Bozkurt stated that the results that emerged in the special poll were close to the average of the research published in August. He reported that the poll results were not evaluated only in terms of the parties' vote shares, but that the potential distribution of parliamentary seats was also calculated.

PARLIAMENTARY SEAT CALCULATION FOR CHP AND NEW PARTY

Bozkurt stated that in different research, the total vote of the New Party and the CHP is at the level of approximately 30 percent. Expressing that if the two parties enter the election separately, different results could emerge in the distribution of parliamentary seats depending on the electoral districts, Bozkurt conveyed his assessment as follows:

“The total of the New Party and the CHP reaches approximately 30 percent in every poll. But when they enter the parliamentary election as 2 separate parties, they cause their rivals to win a large number of parliamentary seats depending on the electoral districts.”