Santorini warning from expert: 'It's not just tsunamis and earthquakes...'

The seismic activity that has intensified in the Aegean Sea since January 28 continues to cause concern in the region. More than 600 earthquakes, centered approximately 25 kilometers northeast of Greece's Santorini Island with depths ranging from 5 to 25 kilometers and attributed to magmatic causes, have put experts on alert. Prof. Dr. Doğan Yaşar, a member of the Turkish Academy of Sciences (TÜBA) Working Group on Environment, Biodiversity, and Climate Change, emphasized that the greatest risk underlying this seismic activity is an unexpected natural phenomenon: global drought.

TSUNAMI AND EARTHQUAKE DANGER 

Prof. Dr. Yaşar stated that any tsunamis and earthquakes occurring in the event of a Santorini volcanic eruption would only have regional effects, but the real catastrophe would be the drought resulting from changes in the atmosphere. "Volcanic eruptions are not limited to local disasters. Atmospheric effects, which vary depending on the size of the eruption, lead to extraordinary droughts that affect the entire world simultaneously. Drought means economic crisis, hunger, and even wars," he said.

Reminding that there are around 120 active volcanoes in the world, Prof. Dr. Yaşar explained with examples that major volcanic eruptions have caused global effects in the past: "When the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines erupted in 1991, it was the largest volcanic eruption of the last 130 years. The ash and gases released into the atmosphere blocked sunlight, causing global temperatures to drop by 0.5 degrees. Dams in Turkey emptied rapidly, and drought set in. For the first time as a country, we imported electricity from Bulgaria. Water conservation policies began to be implemented in the US and Europe."

''GROUNDWATER IS OF VITAL IMPORTANCE''

Emphasizing that the greatest threat of drought would be to water resources, Yaşar stated that the protection of groundwater is of vital importance. "In the event of a volcanic eruption, significant decreases in precipitation are expected for 3-4 years. During this process, we will have to turn to groundwater to meet our water needs. However, there are currently serious deficiencies in protecting these resources in Turkey," he said.

Stating that there are approximately 550,000 wells in Turkey, 120,000 of which were opened illegally, Prof. Dr. Yaşar warned that the uncontrolled use of groundwater could lead to a major water crisis in the future. "In many parts of the world, illegal wells face serious sanctions. For example, in 2023, 256 illegal wells were opened in Spain, and those responsible were sentenced to prison. In Turkey, however, sufficient measures are not being taken to protect groundwater. Maintaining a 2-3 year water reserve is a necessity, but we are neglecting this," he said.

''STEPS MUST BE TAKEN TO AVOID BEING CAUGHT UNPREPARED''

Prof. Dr. Yaşar stated that the effects of major volcanic eruptions like Santorini could lead not only to geological but also to social, economic, and political crises, and issued the following warnings: “Drought is not just a natural phenomenon; it means the collapse of agriculture, food crises, disruptions in energy production, and ultimately, economic crisis. This could trigger water and food wars between societies. The way to be prepared for a possible global drought is to protect water resources, turn to alternative energy sources, and increase water efficiency in agricultural production.”