Sleeping fault wakes up: 10 earthquakes in five days

Recent tremors on the Güzelhisar Fault in the Aliağa district of İzmir have caused concern in the region. Approximately 10 small-scale earthquakes recorded in the last five days have highlighted the activity of the fault line. Experts emphasize the seriousness of the threat in the region, especially when considering the devastating earthquakes that have occurred in the past.

Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, Director of the Earthquake Research and Application Center at Dokuz Eylül University and a member of the AFAD Earthquake Science Board, made assessments regarding the work carried out on the fault line.

Prof. Dr. Sözbilir stated that the Güzelhisar Fault, which is approximately 25 kilometers long, could produce earthquakes up to a magnitude of 6.7. During investigations conducted in the summer months, it was determined that the fault belongs to a higher risk group than previously estimated. Sözbilir stated, "We conducted a study on this fault during the summer months. That study revealed that this fault has different characteristics than what was previously mapped. It is evaluated here as a potential active fault. However, both the earthquakes occurring now and the trenches we opened have revealed that this fault belongs to a higher class."

It was reported that the largest of the earthquakes in recent days was 3.8, and the tremors were felt mostly in the middle sections of the fault line. Prof. Dr. Sözbilir said, "Since it falls into the active fault category, the earthquake activity here is significant. There have been nearly 10 earthquakes on the fault, the largest being 3.8."

Pointing out that the importance of earthquake activities in the region has increased with the classification of this fault as an active fault, Sözbilir emphasized the historical process with the words, "The fault has caused destructive earthquakes three times in the last 10 thousand years. It produced its last earthquake in 105 AD. Therefore, we are facing a fault that has not produced an earthquake for about 2 thousand years in terms of destructive earthquakes."

Sözbilir also stated that although there are small-scale earthquake activities for now, it is too early to predict whether these are precursors to larger earthquakes. "When we look at the ongoing earthquake activity, small-scale earthquakes are occurring. These could be foreshocks of any earthquake. It is too early to say that right now," he said.

Warnings were also issued that if a possible rupture occurs on the Güzelhisar Fault, serious structural damage could occur, especially in Aliağa and its surroundings.