Statement from Kandilli Observatory on the Gemlik earthquake: Not a precursor to the Marmara Earthquake

Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Director Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener and Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory Regional Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring and Evaluation Center Director Assoc. Prof. Dr. Doğan Kalafat spoke about the 5.1 magnitude earthquake that occurred yesterday in the Gemlik district of Bursa.

Prof. Dr. Özener stated that the earthquake occurred at a depth of 5.4 kilometers, noting, "This earthquake has affected various provinces, primarily Bursa and as far as Istanbul. So far, there have been around forty earthquakes. According to our records, the largest aftershock of these earthquakes is 3.8. Nine of these earthquakes are above 3. The North Anatolian Fault splits into two branches in the Marmara Region at Akyazı. One is the northern branch, and the other is the southern branch. The southern branch passes south of İznik and joins the Sea of Marmara in the Gulf of Gemlik. This region is seismically active. We are expecting an earthquake in the Marmara region, but every earthquake that occurs in the Sea of Marmara should not be perceived as a precursor to the earthquake that will occur. When we look at the averages, 900 earthquakes occur in the Sea of Marmara annually. Looking from 2020 to August 15 of this year, there have been 3 thousand earthquakes of various sizes in the Marmara Region," he said.

"NO CAUSE FOR CONCERN"

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kalafat stated, "This earthquake occurred as a result of a small rupture within the southern zone. It does not have a direct relationship with the main segments of the North Anatolian Fault. However, it is an earthquake that occurred as a result of a small tear within the zone. We evaluate it positively. The most important criterion that does not lead us to worry is the distribution of aftershocks over time following the 5.1 magnitude main earthquake. This is important from a seismological perspective. We are currently monitoring it. We hope that these aftershocks will decrease over time. There is no situation to be concerned about at the moment," he said.