The highest authority has spoken! Is Istanbul ready for a possible Marmara earthquake?

Ezgi SİVRİTEPE-12punto.com.tr

With the fear of earthquakes, citizens have begun to wonder about the answers to questions such as; Is Istanbul ready for an earthquake? Is my buildingsafe?

The answers to these questions were evaluated for Murat Yün, Head of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Earthquake Risk Management and Urban Improvement Department,  for 12punto.com.tr.

"360 NEIGHBORHOODS ABELOW WORLD STANDARDS"

The increasing population and building stock in the megacity of Istanbul are raising the need for safe assembly areas where citizens can take refuge in the event of a possible earthquake. 

Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality's Regarding the "Earthquake-Resistant Istanbul" project and the newly constructed assembly areas located in narrow spaces, Yün stated the following:

" We are assisting AFAD with the technical mapping of assembly areas, but AFAD makes the final decision. All large and smallgreen and openOpen spaces, public services, and publicall areas are included as assembly areaswithin. According to our observations from the February 6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake,our findingssAfter an earthquake, people prefer to wait at the site of the wreckage. Therefore, when planning assembly areas, thepopulationde nsitytaking into account, in a neighborhood-based manner weconverted. If there is noopen space in the neighborhood, there needs to be a short-distance assembly area. According toworld standardsaemergency assembly areas should not be less than 1.5 square meters, but we have identified areas under 1.5 square meters in nearly 360 neighborhoods. As the IMM, wearem akingwe have started infrastructure work for 33 parks that require additional investment to serve as assembly areas"  

ISTANBUL TRAFFIC AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE

Istanbul's traffic problem will also be a major issue after the earthquake stating that they are considering the possibility of it causing very serious problemsin to account, Yün n, "We have emergency routes and evacuation corridors. We have main arterial roadsto be used for transporting citizens to temporary shelters or for those who need to be sentout of the city. We have data regarding the potential closure of these roads; we have identified which areas might be blocked if they do close, andfurthermore, we have assessments regarding these closures. we have ongoing efforts. The General Directorate of Highways is also actively involved in these.and the Department of Transportation is also conductingstudiesonthissubject.it.But as we always say, this is an organization that can be carried outoutthrough the cooperation of these institutions," he said.

"THE LAST 5 YEARS OF URBAN TIT WAS A RAPID TIME"

Evaluating the IMM's earthquake preparedness in 5-year and 20-year periods, Yünn, drew attention to the recent projects of the IMM. 

Yün also made the following assessments:

"In previous studies, such as damage estimation reports, sThere were important studies. In the last 5 years, however, the earthquake resistance and urban transforand buildingstrengthening assessments became a priority. The IMM has established a roadmap for which areas to focus on and where to accelerate efforts over the last 5 years. We have taken the theoretical risk that has been shared with the public over the last 20 years and put it into practicetoaccelerate urban renewal.toaccelerate urban renewal towe gave importance. We took steps to increasecitizen awareness. Along with this, we supported our citizens financially. We launched the Istanbul Renews Platform together with KİPTAŞ and BİMTAŞ AŞand addressed the citizen'sconcerns regarding the contractorswe have eliminated the problem."

We are also solvi ngthe issue of unplanned urbanization.taking into account the backgroundingthey have carried out, Yünn, "If we only try to solve this by increasing the floor area ratio,wewill face a cowe would be building a city where the building stock is renewed but the density remains the same or increases. A good city plan and its superstructure-based urban transformationourgoalis to realizeallof these,” he stated, emphasizing the importance they place on urban planning. 

IS ISTANBUL READY FOR AN EARTHQUAKE?

Following the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes on February 6, “Is Istanbul ready for an earthquake?” while the question is frequently on the agenda, Yün, "Istanbul is partially ready"stating, he continued his evaluations as follows:

"I can give an example of Istanbul's earthquake preparedness with numbers; there are 1 million 200 thousand structures in Istanbul. 800 thousand of these structures were built before 2000. 300thousand structures are licensed buildings built after 2008, and the remaining 100 thousand structures are buildings built between 2000 and 2008. According to our findings, among the 800 thousand structures, 200 thousand are expected to sustain heavy damage or collapse. Within these 200 thousand buildings, there are 1 million 300 thousand independent households, which indicates an estimated population of nearly 3 million. For Istanbul to be ready for an earthquake, we must first build sturdy buildings where this population of 3 million can be sheltered after an earthquake, or we need to initiate transformation activities and place citizens in new apartments. As the IMM, we are trying to do our best as much as we can. However, despite everything, for Istanbul to truly be ready for an earthquake quickly, there needs to be inter-institutional cooperation." "EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE ECONOMY"

“EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE ECONOMY”

Emphasizing that efforts must be carried out to make citizens more aware of earthquakes, Yün also touched upon the economic indicators of the transformation process. 

Yün stated, "No one wants to live in a risky structure, or even an old one; everything depends on the economy. Therefore, from the ministry to the districtmunicipalities,citizens need to be provided with economic relief. BItisnecessaryto serve a housing policythatis sustainable,” he said, adding that the revenue generated from housing policy should be used for the construction of new housing.  

NOT SOLELY THE MINISTRY'S RESPONSIBILITY

Urban transformationStating that it is not solely the ministry's responsibility, Yün, "The ministryünits all its projectsüymetropolitan or district municipalities in a joint mannner. Urban trpreparation is handled with a singlehandnot something to be taken lightly; we areurban transformationun that it could be carried out by more than one handuruthat it could be carried outuswe are continuing. Istanbul's management from Istanbulis ongoingweareinfavorof a system" he said. 

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EMERGENCY SYSTEM

Stating that there are 832 accelerometers belonging to İGDAŞ and 110 belonging to Kandilli around the Sea of Marmara, Yün noted that the sensors are collected in a common pool.

Regarding the Earthquake Disaster Emergency System, Yün stated the following: 

"Accelero mersensors detect the ground shaking and when the value exceedsthe limit, İGDAŞ automatically cuts off the gas. This prevents secondary disastersfrom occurring.forthepurpose of these sensors are very important. In the MarmaraRegion, allthegas companies, water and sewage general managements; Kandilli or AFAD's dasensordata should be collected in a common pool and a sharing model should be created for all of them"for this"

“WE MAY NEED TO ADD MORE”

Regarding the question of whether the collapse of newly constructed buildings in the February 6 earthquakes could happen again in a possible Marmara earthquake, Yünn, "According to the 2018 Turkey Building Earthquake Code, buildings must be prepared to withstand a 7.5 magnitude earthquake. If buildings are constructed according to the code, they are sound, but we must not forget that we may need to add more based on the lessons we learned from the February 6 earthquakes," he replied.   

Photo: Kübra Karasu