Trump's tax move shakes the world: How will this step affect Turkey?

US President Donald Trump signed a decree on April 2 at an event at the White House, introducing reciprocal tariffs for 185 countries. With this decree, tariffs ranging from 10 to 50 percent began to be applied to goods imported from many of the US's trading partners.

It was announced that a 10 percent customs duty would be applied to certain countries, including Turkey, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Australia, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. 

The new customs tariffs implemented by the Trump administration are expected to weaken the competitive power of many countries, primarily China and European Union nations, in the US market, thereby creating a significant opportunity for Turkey.

"The US views reciprocal customs duties as leverage for 'negotiations'"

Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) President Şekib Avdagiç stated that the global economic order has returned to protectionism and high customs walls after a long hiatus, or in more popular terms, is being redesigned as customs barriers rise.

Avdagiç noted that the US views reciprocal customs duties as leverage for "negotiations," adding, "Turkey was not included in the heavy Trump taxes, with only a 10 percent base tariff applied to 11 countries. To fully understand how the 185 trading partners of the US will be affected by these tariffs, it is necessary to monitor the negotiations that countries and trade blocs will conduct with the US, as well as potential retaliations starting with China."

Pointing out that the US was Turkey's second-largest export market in 2024, Avdagiç said, "We sold $16.4 billion worth of goods and services to the US. It is clear that we can sell much more than this to a country with a population of 340 million."

Avdagiç indicated that the Turkish business world could capitalize on the country being in the 10 percent tariff group, stating, "For this, our business world needs to analyze Trump's customs duties without delay and determine their product and competition strategies accordingly. In summary, our business world should turn the positive differentiation of Turkey under Trump's taxes into an opportunity."

"European and Far Eastern firms may consider coming to Turkey for investment"

Noting that European and Far Eastern firms with higher tariff rates than Turkey might consider coming to Turkey for investment, Şekib Avdagiç said that the US might prefer to purchase goods from Turkey due to additional customs duties, and that this could increase direct investments in production in Turkey from many countries, primarily in Europe and China.

Pointing out that this could be an important opportunity for foreign direct capital investments to reposition themselves in Turkey, Avdagiç stated, "Turkey's ability to utilize this opportunity will depend on its development of export sectors and its strategy to find new markets."

Drawing attention to the fact that US President Trump uses customs duties as a tool that changes according to the situation, Avdagiç said, "For example, his doubling of customs duties against Turkey on steel and aluminum in 2018 is still fresh in our minds. This shows that we must maintain cautious optimism."

Stating that trade wars will have consequences on the politics of countries, Avdagiç noted the following:

"The US's 10 percent advantageous customs duty bracket could also enable Turkey to expand its regional power status. In addition to the 10 percent Trump tax, the resumption of the Turkey-EU High-Level Economic Dialogue after 6 years will place Turkey in a new and effective position in the global economic and political system."

"We must prepare for new competitive conditions by doing our homework very well"

Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) President Erdal Bahçıvan also pointed out that almost every decree signed by Donald Trump since taking the US Presidential seat on January 20 continues to shake both political and economic balances in the world.

Bahçıvan stated, "The new tax tariffs he has recently signed for various countries should be read as the clearest indicator that we have moved from a world where globalization was the main driving force, which has been discussed for some time, to a world where protectionism and trade wars have come to the fore."

Pointing out that this process is progressing in an unpredictable, rapid, and quite disruptive manner, Bahçıvan assessed, "It also concerns our country very closely. Therefore, we must look at these new developments from a highly strategic perspective. We must prepare for the new competitive conditions that will emerge, especially within the framework of new tariffs that disrupt all competitive norms in the world, by studying our lessons very well. Because we are facing a picture of dimensions that cannot be grasped with rote knowledge or stereotypical perspectives."

"We see that the US has a relatively more positive approach toward Turkey"

Erdal Bahçıvan expressed that when they look at the new US customs tariffs, there is a relatively more positive approach toward Turkey, especially among industrial countries.

Stating that the 10 percent tax on Turkey, compared to taxes reaching an average of 25 percent for countries from China to Japan, and from the EU to South Korea, will improve Turkey's competitive conditions in both investment and foreign trade, Bahçıvan said, "I think that the coming period will create opportunities for us to obtain pinpoint-targeted gains for our economy and industry, while the new process may also bring some risks for our economy. Therefore, it is beneficial for our country to be in a state of special preparation for each of our sectors."

Bahçıvan stated that they should proceed with a strategic study where sectoral opportunities can be identified, adding, "We are also entering a period where we must evaluate this historic opportunity with smart moves by studying our competition lessons very well. But we have to work."

"Especially exporter associations should increase the number of fairs and organizations to be held in this region""

Orhan Aydın, Chairman of the Anatolian Lions Businessmen Association (ASKON), also noted that Turkey's competitiveness has increased and that if the new conditions emerging for Turkey are evaluated correctly, new areas can be created in a positive sense.

Aydın stated that the very high purchasing power in the US is a factor that whets the economic appetite of almost every country, adding, "Therefore, all countries want to be in this market. As Turkey, we undoubtedly must also be in this market."

Stating that the 10 percent additional tax imposed on Turkey puts Turkey in a more competitive position when compared to other rates, Aydın assessed, "If we can make good use of this newly opened space for our country's economy, we can move into an advantageous position. All non-governmental organizations in the business world should be on alert to increase sales to America, and especially exporters' associations should increase the number of fairs and organizations to be held in this region."

Aydın expressed that the fact that Turkish brands will increase their stores in this region is also an advantage, saying, "With the current advantage, many of our brands will also increase their store openings, especially in American cities with high tourist density. Again, as an advantageous area, the possibility that states with high production power that face high tax rates in the US market may adopt Turkey as an investment base due to their search for new markets is increasing."

"Turkey could stand out as an alternative supplier"

Gürkan Yıldırım, Chairman of the Young Business People Association of Turkey (TÜGİAD), also stated that global markets began to fluctuate after US President Donald Trump announced the tax rates to be applied to imports.

Yıldırım noted that from an export perspective, the high taxes the US will impose on China and the EU could reduce imports from these regions, stating, "This situation will create the potential for Turkey to increase its exports to the US market in certain sectors. Especially for sectors that provide supply from these regions, Turkey could stand out as an alternative supplier."

Pointing out that when looking at the issue from an investment perspective, the high taxes imposed on China, the EU, and Far Eastern countries could cause some companies in these regions to shift their production to other countries, Yıldırım said, "In such a case, if Turkey offers a suitable investment environment, it can attract the investments of these companies."

Noting that negotiations Turkey will hold with the US could mitigate the impact of the tax decision, Yıldırım stated, "Agreements to be made between the two countries could reorganize the trade balance. The fact that Trump leaves the door open for negotiations with countries subject to his tax policies suggests that such a possibility exists."