Veto threat against Turkey in EU's 150 billion euro defense fund

The European Union (EU) has launched a new 150 billion euro defense fund called SAFE (Support for Defense, Security and Industrial Cooperation). The fund aims to increase Europe's joint defense capacity, encourage domestic production, and invest in NATO-compatible technologies. Turkey also wants to take a more active role in the European defense industry through this fund. However, there are both technical and political obstacles to participation.

CLEAR MESSAGE FROM GREECE

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis clearly stated that the first condition for Turkey to participate in the SAFE fund is the withdrawal of the "casus belli," or declaration of war, decision. Mitsotakis said, "For 30 years, Turkey has declared that it would consider it a cause for war if Greece were to extend its territorial waters. As long as this threat persists, it cannot benefit from the European Union's defense funds."

The decision Mitsotakis is referring to is based on a resolution passed by the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) in 1995, which states that Turkey would consider it a cause for war if Greece were to extend its territorial waters in the Aegean beyond 6 miles.

APPROVAL OF ALL EU MEMBERS REQUIRED FOR PARTICIPATION

According to a report by Sözcü, full and privileged participation in the SAFE fund requires the signing of a security cooperation agreement with the EU. These agreements are subject to the approval of all member states. Therefore, Greece's veto is the biggest obstacle to Turkey's access to the fund. Furthermore, Article 16 of the EU regulation allows for the "exclusion of countries that threaten security interests."

TECHNOLOGICAL INTEREST IN TURKEY, BUT A MAJOR POLITICAL OBSTACLE

Another reason the EU does not want to close its doors to Turkey is Turkey's production power in the defense industry. Unmanned aerial vehicles such as the Bayraktar TB2, developed by Baykar, are also used by European countries due to their NATO-compatible structure. Countries such as Germany, Italy, and Spain support Turkey's contribution within the scope of this fund. However, Greece's political veto could deadlock the entire process.

Turkey wants to both deepen its defense collaborations and achieve economic gains by taking part in major European projects like the SAFE fund. However, this goal clashes with historical tensions in the Aegean Sea. Greece implies that it could give the green light to the fund in exchange for Turkey softening its "hard stance" on territorial waters and the demilitarization of the islands. Ankara, however, is unwilling to step back from these positions.

ECONOMIC 'U-TURNS' IN FOREIGN POLICY

While it is wondered whether Turkey will relax its red lines for access to the SAFE fund, similar past retreats are back on the agenda. Here are some notable shifts in foreign policy:

From Sisi to my friend Sisi: Turkey, which showed the strongest reaction to the 2013 military coup in Egypt, did not establish relations with Cairo for years. However, in recent years, President Erdoğan and Sisi have started a new era with friendly photos.

UAE and July 15: During the 2016 FETÖ coup attempt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was accused of being the financier of the coup. Today, the two countries are signing multi-billion dollar investment agreements.

Khashoggi file closed: After the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the consulate in Istanbul, it was announced that the murder would be pursued. However, the case was transferred to Saudi Arabia in 2022. Prince Salman was hosted in Ankara with an official ceremony.

Refugee bargain with the EU: Turkey received 6 billion euros in exchange for its commitment to keep refugees in the country under the Readmission Agreement signed in 2016. However, the promised visa liberalization did not materialize.

Blue Homeland in the background: Harsh rhetoric in the Eastern Mediterranean has been softened for new trade negotiations with Europe. Seismic research has been halted.