What is the vote gap between Murat Kurum and Ekrem İmamoğlu in Istanbul? Bekir Ağırdır's 'Istanbul' commentary

Researcher Bekir Ağırdır drew attention to the latest situation in Istanbul shortly before the local elections. 

HE WAS 10-12 POINTS AHEAD

Stating that İmamoğlu was 10-12 points ahead at the beginning of the campaign period, Ağırdır said, “Surveys published over the last two months still show that there is no voter transition between the pro-government and opposition blocs, and that the ruling bloc is in the 42-44 percent range nationwide and in the 40-42 percent range in Istanbul. In the same surveys, İmamoğlu was ahead and appeared to be 10-12 points above the CHP's vote. We can now say that the advantage he had two months ago has disappeared and the race has started neck-and-neck.”

"IT IS NOT REALISTIC TO EXPECT THE CHP VOTE TO INCREASE"

In his article, Ağırdır stated the following:

“İmamoğlu appeared to be starting the race ahead and with a vote nearly 10-12 points higher than the CHP's. However, it is certain that the İyi Party candidate Buğra Kavuncu, the Zafer Party candidate Azmi Karamahmutoğlu, and the Saadet Party candidate Birol Aydın will minimize the votes that would go to İmamoğlu from their parties. The DEM Party is also expected to field a very high-profile candidate. Considering the CHP's attitude and choices during the candidacy process that fueled hopelessness, it is not realistic to expect the CHP vote to increase.

Looking at this fragmentation in the opposition and the destructive mutual rhetoric, we can say that İmamoğlu's advantage on paper from two months ago has disappeared and the İmamoğlu-Kurum race has started from a point close to a dead heat."

"THEY WILL NOT REFRAIN FROM DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN FOR THIS CAUSE"

Ağırdır evaluated the situation on the AKP side as follows:

“Erdoğan and the ruling bloc's game plan is clear. The government will exert all its power—the state, the public budget, the media, and the skill of using technology—on the elections, and especially on the Istanbul elections. For this cause, they will not refrain from doing everything they can, regardless of whether it is legal or ethical. The government wants to further widen the 52-48 percent balance nationwide in its favor. If it succeeds, it will act more boldly in overcoming all institutional and social barriers in front of it, as seen in the Can Atalay decision, and it will also gain the power of psychological pressure against the right-wing parties that appear to be in the opposition today in order to achieve the grand right-wing coalition-consolidation it desires.”