5 different calculations for the 2027 minimum wage hike: Figures for the new salary have emerged
According to calculations updated with September inflation, the net minimum wage in 2027 is shaping up to be in the 35,936 TL - 36,608 TL range, depending on year-end forecasts.
12punto
Calculations for the 2027 minimum wage have been updated following the release of September inflation data. Based on the current net minimum wage of 28,075.50 TL, five different scenarios for the new wage have emerged based on various year-end inflation forecasts.
According to TURKSTAT data, consumer prices rose by 1.84 percent on a monthly basis in September. While annual inflation was 29.73 percent, the total increase in the January-September period reached 24.32 percent. The 12-month average increase in the CPI was recorded at 31.49 percent.
With the 27 percent increase made at the beginning of 2026, the net minimum wage had risen to 28,075.50 TL, and the gross minimum wage to 33,033 TL. The new wage will be determined at the end of the negotiations in December by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which includes representatives of the government, workers, and employers.
5 SCENARIOS ON THE TABLE
The lowest figure in the calculations was formed according to the CBRT's year-end inflation expectation of 28 percent. If a raise is made at this rate, the net minimum wage rises to 35,936.64 TL. The highest calculation points to the 36,607.60 TL level with a 30.39 percent forecast.
| Scenario | Inflation/raise rate | New net minimum wage | Monthly increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBRT year-end CPI expectation | 28 percent | 35,936.64 TL | Approximately 7,861 TL |
| Medium-Term Program forecast | 28.4 percent | 36,048.94 TL | Approximately 7,973 TL |
| CBRT Market Participants Survey | 29.61 percent | 36,388.66 TL | Approximately 8,313 TL |
| AA Finance Expectation Survey | 29.66 percent | 36,402.69 TL | Approximately 8,327 TL |
| Financial Institutions Association forecast | 30.39 percent | 36,607.60 TL | Approximately 8,532 TL |
If the 28.4 percent 2026 year-end inflation forecast in the Medium-Term Program is taken as a basis, the net wage reaches 36,048.94 TL. According to the 29.61 percent expectation in the CBRT Market Participants Survey, the figure is calculated as 36,388.66 TL.
The average year-end inflation forecast of economists participating in the AA Finance Expectation Survey was 29.66 percent. If this rate is reflected in the wage increase, the net minimum wage rises to 36,402.69 TL. The 30.39 percent forecast in the Financial Institutions Association's Economic Outlook Index constitutes the highest scenario with 36,607.60 TL.
CALCULATIONS WERE ALSO MADE FOR OTHER SALARIES
Possible raise rates were calculated not only for the minimum wage but also for different income levels. The salary of an employee receiving a net 30,000 TL rises to 38,400 TL with a 28 percent increase, and to 39,117 TL with a 30.39 percent increase.
For an employee with a net salary of 50,000 TL, the same two scenarios mean a new wage ranging between 64,000 TL and 65,195 TL. For a net salary of 100,000 TL, a 28 percent increase corresponds to 128,000 TL, and a 30.39 percent increase corresponds to 130,390 TL.
However, all these figures consist of calculations made with the assumption that year-end inflation expectations are reflected one-to-one in the minimum wage. The exact amount will be clarified after the bargaining process in the Minimum Wage Determination Commission and the evaluations of the parties.
Minister of Labor and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan had announced in the previous minimum wage process that the commission's work would begin at the beginning of December. This year, too, negotiations are expected to begin in the first weeks of December and the new minimum wage to be announced towards the end of the month.