A critical look at Turkey's growth data from Mahfi Eğilmez: He points to the discrepancy
Economist Mahfi Eğilmez drew attention to the discrepancy between the growth data released by TURKSTAT and market complaints. Eğilmez stated that the increase in consumption has not broken inflation expectations.
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In his article evaluating the third-quarter growth data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), economist Mahfi Eğilmez stated that at a time when criticisms of the economic program are increasing, only the problems of exporters align with the announced data. Eğilmez emphasized that the increase in household consumption shows that the program aimed at curbing demand is not effective.
According to TURKSTAT data, the Turkish economy grew by 3.7% compared to the same period last year. According to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data, growth was calculated at 1.1% compared to the previous quarter of this year and 3.4% compared to the third quarter of last year. While the annualized growth rate stood at 3.7%, this rate remained below the potential growth rate of 4.9%.
AGRICULTURE LAGGED IN SECTORAL GROWTH
According to the data, all sectors except agriculture recorded growth. The agricultural sector drew a negative picture by shrinking by 12.7%. Eğilmez stated that the cost of this decline in the agricultural sector is becoming heavy and that an urgent support program is necessary.
While the construction sector continues its role as a locomotive in growth, firms in the industrial sector complain about rising costs and the inability to generate sufficient earnings. The difficulties in the textile sector are particularly noteworthy. Eğilmez stated that the declines in the industrial production index and capacity utilization rate confirm these complaints.
CONSUMPTION INCREASE AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Final household consumption increased by 4.8% compared to the third quarter of last year. Eğilmez stated that this increase shows that the disinflation program is not effective and that consumers do not believe that inflation will fall. Exports decreased by 0.7%, while imports increased by 4.3%. Eğilmez said that exchange rate suppression makes exporting difficult and encourages imports.
In conclusion, Eğilmez stated that only the complaints of exporters are consistent with the TURKSTAT data, while other complaints are confusing.