Ali Haydar Bozkurt: We anticipate encountering a different picture in 2024

The Turkish automotive market is leaving behind a year in which second-hand vehicle prices exceeded the prices of new ones, and after the automobile turned into an investment tool, it normalized with the measures implemented by the Ministry of Trade, with availability balancing out just after the second half of the year. Furthermore, the fact that the total passenger and light commercial vehicle market exceeded 1 million units for the first time placed 2023 in an important position in terms of the automotive market.

Senior executives of automotive brands operating in Turkey shared their evaluations regarding 2023 and their forecasts for 2024 with an AA reporter.

"It will be a year where companies will run campaigns whenever they find the opportunity"

Toyota Turkey Marketing and Sales Inc. CEO Ali Haydar Bozkurt recalled that with the increases in vehicle availability in the passenger and light commercial automotive market, the 1 million unit threshold was exceeded in 11 months before the year ended, stating, "The market closed the last 11 months with record sales, and a similar pace is expected in the last month of the year. Thus, 2023 seems to have brought record sales with the long-unmet demand for vehicles."

Stating that the normalization process in terms of vehicle availability will continue next year, Bozkurt said, "2024 will be a year where companies will run campaigns whenever they find the opportunity, as in previous years. Although a market of over 1 million was achieved for the first time in 2023, we anticipate that we will encounter a different picture in 2024. The rise in vehicle prices, credit costs, and difficulties and constraints in accessing credit may lead to a contraction of around 30-35 percent in the market. At this point, a market volume of around 750-800 thousand, including automobiles and light commercial vehicles, may be realized."

Stating that as Toyota, they aim to have a 10 percent share based on the market size next year, Bozkurt said, "Currently, our product range is very wide. We are already in a very good position regarding sedan models. In addition, we have become very strong in the commercial vehicle and SUV segments. We have full hybrid versions in all our models, and we are the only brand in this sense. We have a range that will respond to all expectations."

"When we look at the last 5 years, we can actually state that it will be a 'normal' market"

Doğuş Otomotiv Executive Board Chairman Ali Bilaloğlu also said that the Turkish automotive sector performed well in general in 2023, with the advantage of being a sector that can react quickly and agilely reconfigure its future plans by drawing inferences from the situation it is in.

Expressing that they expect passenger car sales to reach 930 thousand and commercial vehicle sales to reach 270 thousand by the end of the year, closing the total market at 1.2 million units, Bilaloğlu said, "Looking at 2024, we do not foresee the market being as high as this year. I think the automotive market will contract by approximately 30 percent in parallel with the course of the world economy. This corresponds to a market of around 800 thousand. Therefore, when we look at the last 5 years, we can actually state that it will be a 'normal' market."

"We expect a 'normalization' in total market volume in 2024"

Borusan Otomotiv Executive Board Chairman Hakan Tiftik pointed out that the Turkish automotive market closed 2023 with record sales figures above expectations, due to factors such as the gradual decrease in global problems affecting the automotive sector, the demand accumulated over the last 3 years, and the increase in vehicle availability.

Stating that the inflationary environment, which the world's leading economies are also facing, is affecting the automotive sector, Tiftik noted the following:

"We are closing 2023, which we started as a country with difficulty, at record levels with the effect of accumulated demand. I think the accumulated demand has been largely met in 2023; in this direction, we expect a 'normalization' in the total market volume in 2024 as supply and demand in the market balance out. On the other hand, there may be a slowdown/decline in demand, especially with the further tightening of monetary policy after the elections. With the 'normalization' and slowdown effects I mentioned, we can expect the new vehicle market to pull back by around 20 percent. The local elections to be held in March, developments in our region, and fluctuations in global economies will also be factors that will determine the course in 2024."

Hakan Tiftik made the following assessment regarding expectations for automobile prices:

"Due to Turkey's geopolitical position, it is not very possible to foresee changes in prices from today. Regarding prices, which follow a course dependent on many parameters, especially exchange rates, consumers' access to financing is also of great importance. However, the easing of vehicle availability compared to the previous period will also directly affect demand and prices in the second-hand market."