All eyes on the Central Bank's interest rate decision! Who expects what?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will announce its November interest rate decision at 14:00.

The expectation is that the interest rate hike cycle, which began in June, will continue in a limited manner.

The TCMB has raised interest rates by a total of 2,650 basis points over five meetings, with increases of 650 basis points in June, 250 in July, 750 in August, and 500 each in September and October.

Economists participating in the AA Finance expectation survey predicted that the one-week repo auction rate (policy rate) would be increased by 250 basis points to 37.50 percent.

Forecasts from global financial institutions are in line with this. JPMorgan projected a 250 basis point increase at today's meeting.

Similarly, Morgan Stanley also expects the interest rate to rise to 37.50 percent. The institution is of the opinion that interest rate hikes will be paused until the end of the first quarter of 2024 and that the rate will rise to 40 percent in April.

Societe Generale also announced an expectation that the final interest rate decision of the year, like in November, will be a 250 basis point increase and that the interest rate will be 40 percent by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs, which shares the same expectation, pointed to the third quarter of next year for interest rate cuts. According to the US investment bank's forecast, the interest rate will decline from 40 percent to 25 percent by the end of next year.