Bitcoin falls below $65,000: Analysts warn of $38,000

Bitcoin fell below the $65,000 level in the early hours of Asian trading, signaling that selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market continues. Uncertainties regarding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy, weak institutional demand, and ongoing outflows from exchange-traded funds are cited as the primary reasons for the pressure on the crypto asset.

Inflation data in the US that came in below expectations led to a decline in Treasury bond yields and the dollar, providing short-term support for risky assets. However, the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate path keeping bond yields high has limited the room for a recovery in Bitcoin.

ETF OUTFLOWS INCREASE PRESSURE

Exness Strategist Li Xing pointed out that the weakness in institutional demand persists. While there was a net outflow of approximately $6.9 billion from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds during the May-June period, it was noted that total flows in July have also remained negative.

According to Xing, unless a permanent reversal in fund flows is seen, it is difficult for potential gains in Bitcoin to become sustainable. It is also stated that the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are negatively affecting risk perception in the cryptocurrency market.

NYDIG, meanwhile, assessed that the loss of value experienced in Bitcoin in the 2025-2026 period is increasingly resembling the four-year cycle corrections seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

According to the institution, if the current decline repeats the depth and duration of previous bear markets, Bitcoin could bottom out in the $38,000-$39,000 range later this year.

Bitcoin has lost approximately 50 percent of its value since its all-time high of approximately $126,000 seen in October 2025. The cryptocurrency has lagged behind various assets this year, including US Treasury bonds, silver, and the Swiss franc.