Bloomberg HT interest rate survey released: What do markets expect from the Central Bank?
Bloomberg HT's survey regarding the CBRT's January interest rate decision has concluded. According to the survey, the policy rate is expected to be increased by 250 basis points to 45 percent.
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The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its first interest rate decision of 2024 on Thursday, January 25.
As markets turn their attention to Thursday, the median expectation of the 23 institutions participating in the Bloomberg HT survey is that the CBRT will raise the interest rate by 250 basis points to 45 percent on January 25. According to the survey, the maximum interest rate expectation for January was announced as 45 percent, while the minimum expectation was recorded at 42.5 percent.
On the other hand, 22 institutions also shared their interest rate forecasts for the end of 2024 during this survey period. Accordingly, the market's forecast for the policy rate at the end of 2024, as of January, was 40 percent. Furthermore, among the year-end 2024 interest rate forecasts, the highest expectation was 45 percent, while the lowest expectation was 30 percent.
In the same survey, participants were also asked about their expectations for the first interest rate cut. Of the 23 institutions that shared their forecasts, 9 stated that the interest rate cut could occur in the third quarter of 2024, while another 9 institutions stated that the first cut could take place in the fourth quarter of 2024.
While 1 institution expects the first interest rate cut in June, 1 institution stated that it expects the cut in September or October. Finally, 3 of the institutions stated that they do not expect any interest rate cuts from the CBRT in 2024.