CBRT Market Participants Survey released: What are the dollar and inflation forecasts?
While inflation and exchange rate expectations increased in the Central Bank's Market Participants Survey, growth forecasts saw a decline. According to the survey, the year-end inflation forecast rose to 29.98 percent, and the dollar/TL estimate climbed to 43.60.
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According to the Market Participants Survey released by the CBRT, the year-end inflation forecast rose from 28.04 percent in March to 29.98 percent. The CPI expectation for 12 months ahead also increased from 24.55 percent to 25.56 percent. The increase indicates that inflationary pressures in the markets persist.
DOLLAR/TL FORECASTS REVISED UPWARD
The exchange rate expectations of the market representatives participating in the survey were also revised upward.
Year-end dollar/TL exchange rate forecast: 42.79 TL › 43.60 TL
12-month ahead exchange rate expectation: 44.42 TL › 45.85 TL
While the April policy rate expectation remained stable at 42.50 percent, increases were noted for other maturities:
3-month ahead interest rate forecast: 37.70 percent › 39.24 percent
12-month ahead interest rate forecast: 27.60 percent › 29.37 percent
SLIGHT DECLINE IN GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
A limited decline was observed in Turkey's growth forecasts in the survey:
2025 growth forecast: 3.1 percent › 3.0 percent
2026 growth forecast: 4.0 percent › 3.8 percent
This decline reflects the expectation that economic growth may be constrained in an environment of high interest rates and inflation.
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT EXPECTATION DECLINED
Another data point that drew attention in a positive direction was in the current account deficit forecasts:
2025 year-end current account deficit forecast: 19.4 billion dollars › 19.1 billion dollars
2026 current account deficit forecast: 24.5 billion dollars › 24.1 billion dollars