CBRT September survey released: Here are the year-end dollar and inflation forecasts

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has released its market participants survey for September. According to the survey, there was a decline in year-end inflation and exchange rate forecasts. Significant revisions were made to the inflation, exchange rate, and growth expectations included in the survey.

DECLINE IN INFLATION FORECAST

According to the survey, the year-end inflation forecast fell from 43.31 percent in the previous month to 43.14 percent. Additionally, the annual inflation expectation for 12 months ahead dropped from 27.71 percent to 27.49 percent. In long-term forecasts, the CPI expectation for 24 months ahead was revised from 19.30 percent to 18.38 percent.

DOLLAR/TL EXPECTATION DECLINED

The year-end dollar/TL forecast also fell slightly, dropping from 37.27 to 37.16. However, the dollar/TL expectation for 12 months ahead rose from 42.03 to 42.43, indicating an expectation of upward movement in the exchange rate in the medium term.

GROWTH FORECAST LOWERED

According to the CBRT survey, Turkey's year-end growth forecast was also lowered from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent. Furthermore, the growth rate projected for 2025 was reduced from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent.

SURVEY PARTICIPANTS

The market participants survey is conducted regularly every month with a total of 72 participants, 54 from the financial sector and 18 from the real sector. This survey is considered an important indicator for revealing the general expectations of the market.