Central Bank announces dollar, interest rate, and inflation forecasts! How much will the dollar be at the end of the year?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) has announced the results of its March Market Participants Survey.

Accordingly, the 2024 year-end dollar/TL expectation, which was 40.02 in the previous survey, became 40.53 in the March survey.

The expectation for the dollar exchange rate 12 months ahead, which was 41.15 in the February survey, was recorded as 42.79 TL in the March survey.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION ROSE

The participants' expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market, which was 45 percent in the previous survey period, became 45.82 percent in this survey period.

The TCMB one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for the end of the current month was announced as 45 percent, remaining the same as in the previous survey period.

INFLATION EXPECTATION INCREASED

The participants' current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation, which was 42.96 percent in the February survey, became 44.19 percent in the March survey.

The CPI expectation for 12 months ahead was 37.78 percent in the previous survey period, while it became 36.70 percent in this survey period. The CPI expectation for 24 months ahead was recorded as 23.05 percent and 22.67 percent, respectively, in the same survey periods.

GROWTH EXPECTATION REMAINED STABLE

The participants' GDP growth expectation for 2024 remained at 3.3 percent in the March survey, just as it was in the previous survey period.

The growth expectation for 2025 also remained stable at 3.8 percent during this period.