Central Bank announces new forecasts: What is the latest on dollar and inflation projections?
According to the CBRT's February survey of market participants, the year-end 2025 dollar forecast has declined, while inflation expectations have risen. While a decrease in interest rates is anticipated, the growth forecast has been revised downward.
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The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has announced the results of its February survey of market participants. Significant changes have occurred in expectations for the dollar/TL exchange rate, interest rates, inflation, and growth.
DOLLAR EXPECTATION DECLINED
The dollar/TL forecast for the end of 2025, which was 43.03 in January, fell to 42.89 in the February survey. Markets are closely monitoring the limited retreat in the dollar exchange rate.
INFLATION EXPECTATION ROSE
According to the CBRT survey, the inflation forecast has been revised upward. Experts state that rising costs and domestic demand could increase inflationary pressures.
DECLINE IN INTEREST RATES AND GROWTH
While the policy rate expectation has shown a decline, the growth forecast has also been revised downward. Economists continue to evaluate the effects of interest rate easing on growth.
INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION
The expectation for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month fell from 45.00 percent in the previous survey period to 44.79 percent.
The participants' growth expectation for 2025 has declined to 3.0 percent.