Central Bank announces year-end dollar and inflation forecasts! What are the market expectations?
According to the Central Bank's Survey of Market Participants, the year-end inflation expectation, which was 44.16 percent in the previous survey period, has become 43.64 percent in this survey period. The year-end dollar/TL expectation has declined to the 38.78 TL level.
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The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) has published its market participants survey for May.
Accordingly, the market participants' inflation expectation for 12 months ahead was recorded at 33.21 percent.
In the previous survey, this expectation was at the 35.17 percent level.
INFLATION FORECAST
The 2024 year-end inflation forecast also declined from 44.16 percent to 43.64 percent. This expectation showed that the market anticipates higher inflation for the year-end than the TCMB. In its second inflation report of the year, the TCMB had raised its 2024 year-end inflation forecast from 36 percent to 38 percent.
In the TCMB's May market participants survey, the inflation forecast for 24 months ahead was lowered from 22.05 percent to 21.33 percent.
NO CHANGE EXPECTED IN INTEREST RATES, DOLLAR FORECAST DECLINED
According to the survey results, the expectation for the TCMB one-week repo auction interest rate for the end of the current month remained at the 50 percent level.
The participants' year-end Dollar/TL exchange rate expectation, which was 40.01 TL in the previous survey period, became 38.78 TL in this survey period.
The exchange rate expectation for 12 months ahead was 41.80 TL in this survey period, compared to 42.47 TL in the previous survey period.
The participants' GDP growth expectations for 2024 and 2025 were determined as 3.3 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, just as they were in the previous survey period.