Central Bank raises year-end inflation and dollar forecasts
According to the Central Bank's Market Participants Survey for September, the year-end inflation forecast rose from 59.46 percent to 67.22 percent, and the dollar forecast increased from 29.82 to 30.14.
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The Central Bank has published its "September 2023 Market Participants Survey," conducted with 41 participants consisting of representatives from the real sector, financial sector, and professionals. Accordingly, the year-end inflation forecast rose to 67.22 percent, and the dollar forecast increased to 30.14 TL.
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
The current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation, which was 59.46 percent in the previous survey period, became 67.22 percent in this survey period. The 12-month ahead CPI expectation rose from 42.01 percent to 44.94 percent.
DOLLAR EXPECTATIONS
The year-end dollar expectation, which was 29.82 TL in the previous survey period, rose to 30.14 TL in this survey period, while the 12-month ahead dollar expectation increased from 34.58 TL to 37.26 TL.
INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS
The expectation for the overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market at the end of the current month, which was 19.34 percent in the previous survey period, became 29.26 percent in this survey period. The expectation for the CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate at the end of the current month, which was 19.19 percent in the previous survey period, became 30.00 percent in this survey period.
GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
The GDP growth expectation for 2023, which was 3.7 percent in the previous survey period, became 3.9 percent in this survey period. The GDP growth expectation for 2024 fell from 4 percent to 3.8 percent.