Central Bank shares dollar and inflation expectations: How much will it be at the end of the year?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has published its August Market Participants Survey, conducted with 69 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors as well as professionals.

Accordingly, the expectation for the August CPI increase, which was 2.17 percent last month, rose to 2.55 percent in this survey period. The expectation for the current year-end CPI increase rose from 42.95 percent to 43.31 percent.

The expectation for the CPI increase 12 months ahead fell from 30.02 percent to 28.71 percent, and for 24 months ahead from 19.32 percent to 19.30 percent.

YEAR-END DOLLAR EXPECTATION FELL, INCREASED FOR 12 MONTHS AHEAD

While the participants' year-end dollar/TL expectation dropped from 37.3667 to 37.2760, the 12-month ahead dollar/TL expectation rose from 41.5175 to 42.0348.

The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was 27.6 billion dollars in the previous survey period, fell to 25.5 billion dollars in this period. The current account deficit expectation for the next year also declined to 25.7 billion dollars.

POLICY RATE EXPECTATION FOR THE END OF THE CURRENT MONTH IS 50 PERCENT

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expectation for the current year remained stable at 3.4 percent, while it fell to 3.5 percent for the next year.

While the expectation for the CBRT's policy rate at the end of the current month is 50 percent, the expectation for 3 months ahead fell to 48.10 percent.

The policy rate expectation for 12 months ahead also declined from 34.57 percent to 33.30 percent.