Central Bank shares year-end dollar exchange rate forecast

The Central Bank has released its 'October 2024 Market Participants Survey,' conducted with 72 participants consisting of representatives from the real sector, financial sector, and professionals.

INFLATION FORECAST ROSE!

According to the survey, the current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation rose from 43.14 percent to 44.11 percent. The 12-month ahead CPI expectation fell from 27.49 percent in the previous survey period to 27.44 percent in this survey period.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION

The participants' end-of-month overnight interest rate expectation was 50.83 percent in the previous period, while it became 50 percent in this survey period. The CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for the end of the current month remained at 50.00 percent, just as it was in the previous survey period.

EXCHANGE RATE FORECAST FELL

Furthermore, the year-end exchange rate expectation, which was 37.16 TL in the previous period, became 36.63 TL in this period. The 12-month ahead exchange rate expectation was 42.43 TL in the previous survey period, while it was recorded as 42.73 TL in this survey period.

GROWTH EXPECTATION DECLINED

The GDP growth expectation for 2024 was updated to 3.1 percent in this survey period, down from 3.2 percent in the previous survey period. The GDP growth expectation for 2025 fell from 3.4 percent to 3.3 percent.