Central Bank to announce final interest rate decision of the year today! Will cuts begin?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) will meet today (December 26) under the chairmanship of Fatih Karahan.

Following the meeting, which markets are closely watching, the final interest rate decision of 2024 will be announced at 14:00.

In the PPK meeting held last month, the policy rate was kept steady at 50 percent.

WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS OF ECONOMISTS?

An expectations survey regarding the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting was concluded with the participation of 14 economists. While 4 of the economists participating in the survey predicted that the policy rate would be kept steady, 10 predicted that it would be cut. The average value of the economists' expectations was for the interest rate to be cut by 150 basis points to 48.50 percent.

According to the survey results, economists' policy rate expectations ranged between 47.50 percent and 50.00 percent. The average of the economists' year-end 2025 policy rate expectations was 29.50 percent.

MARKET PARTICIPANTS SURVEY PUBLISHED

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) Market Participants Survey, the expectation for the TCMB's policy rate at the end of the current month was 48.51 percent, while the expectation for 3 months ahead fell to 43.50 percent.

The policy rate expectation for 12 months ahead rose from 30.84 percent to 30.88 percent.

WHAT WILL THE CENTRAL BANK'S INTEREST RATE DECISION BE?

On the other hand, foreign institutions have also announced their forecasts regarding interest rates.

Morgan Stanley shared its expectation of a 200 basis point cut for Thursday's meeting.

In a note published by Goldman Sachs, it was stated that "it is still too early for a cut; a rate cut in January is more likely."

The Central Bank last raised the interest rate to 50 percent in March.