Citizens' inflation expectations have risen!

The annual inflation expectation of citizens for the next 12 months rose in February, and the annual inflation expectation for households for the next 12 months was recorded at 59.2 percent. While inflation expectations for market participants and the real sector declined, the gap between the inflation expectations of market participants and citizens reached 33.9 points.

In February 2025, the annual inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased by 0.4 points for households, rising to 59.2 percent.

According to the statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), during the same period, expectations for market participants decreased by 0.1 points to 25.3 percent, and for the real sector, they fell by 1.9 points to 41.9 percent.

The TCMB is closely monitoring the alignment of inflation expectations and pricing behaviors with its own forecasts. In contrast to the high inflation expectations of households and the real sector, market expectations remain in a more optimistic position.

The Central Bank's statement noted the following:

"In February 2025, annual inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased by 0.1 points to 25.3 percent for market participants and by 1.9 points to 41.9 percent for the real sector, while they increased by 0.4 points to 59.2 percent for households.

The proportion of households expecting inflation to fall in the next 12-month period decreased by 2.5 points compared to the previous month, standing at 28.3 percent.

Sectoral Inflation Expectations were obtained by compiling the 12-month annual consumer inflation expectations of financial and real sector experts, manufacturing firms, and households through the Market Participants Survey, the Business Tendency Survey, and the Consumer Tendency Survey conducted in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute."