Crisis in the Middle East leads to major decline in air cargo transport

The first half of 2026 in the international aviation and logistics sector witnessed significant contractions in transport due to the war in the Middle East. While there was a 41 percent decrease in air cargo flights between Europe and the Middle East, a 4.1 percent decline was observed in flights on the Middle East-Asia route. During this period of intense geopolitical tensions, many airlines were forced to reduce their operations or shift their routes to alternative regions.

The Turkish logistics market continues to hold an important place in the sector with a size of approximately 40 billion dollars. The market is expected to reach 110 billion dollars by 2030 with the support of port and railway investments. Due to existing logistics centers, especially in Istanbul, approaching their capacity limits and the decrease in suitable areas for new facilities, vertical investments have begun to come to the fore in the sector. Companies are investing in crane and automation systems at ports, and in eco-friendly vehicles, digital fleet management, and alternative energy solutions for road transport.

In the airline sector, growth of 8 percent in travel demand and more than 3 percent in cargo transport was achieved in 2025. According to June 2026 data, the annual cargo transport growth rate hovered around 8.5 percent. However, the serious decline on the Europe-Middle East route changed the balance in the sector. The highest growth was recorded between Asia and North America at 14.7 percent, and this increase has been continuing for the last five months.

Industry officials predict that the normalization process in transport under the shadow of geopolitical risks could take up to a year. Despite all the challenges, a 2.4 percent increase in global cargo volume is projected by the end of the year.

Railway investments in Turkey have gained momentum. While the goal is to commission 91 projects initiated since 2016, an appropriation of 261 billion 580 million liras has been allocated from the 2026 budget. Although the investment program focuses on passenger transport, industry representatives emphasize that more resources should be allocated to freight transport. Border carbon regulations and reaching high capacities increase the importance of existing investments.

This contraction in the Europe and Central Asia corridors is encouraging logistics companies to develop new strategies. It is anticipated that steps toward technological infrastructure and digitalization will continue in port, railway, and road investments.