Critical food alert: Hits 38-month high

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has released its April data on global food prices. According to the released data, the FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly price changes in international food commodities, rose by 1.6 percent in April compared to the previous month, reaching 130.7 points.

Thus, the index reached its highest level since February 2023. While it is notable that the index has risen for the third consecutive month, it recorded a 2 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

In its statement, the FAO indicated that rising energy costs and disruptions caused by conflicts in the Middle East have had an impact on global food prices.

CEREAL PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE

The FAO Cereal Price Index rose by 0.8 percent in April compared to the previous month and by 0.4 percent compared to the same period last year.

It was reported that world wheat prices increased by 0.8 percent due to drought in the US and expectations of insufficient rainfall in Australia.

The report stated that the rise in energy costs and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed fertilizer prices upward. It was noted that the increase in fertilizer costs has raised the likelihood of farmers shifting toward crops that require less fertilizer in 2026, which in turn supports wheat prices.

VEGETABLE OIL PRICES AT 21-MONTH HIGH

The Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 5.9 percent in April, reaching its highest level in the last 21 months.

It was stated that the rise in crude oil prices, which increased demand for biofuels, was effective in the rise of palm, soy, sunflower, and rapeseed oil prices.

In palm oil specifically, it was noted that concerns regarding production declines in Southeast Asia have pushed prices upward for the fifth consecutive month.

MEAT PRICES REACH HISTORIC HIGH

The FAO Meat Price Index rose by 1.2 percent in April, reaching an all-time high.

It was stated that the limited supply of cattle ready for slaughter in Brazil has pushed beef prices to record levels worldwide.

Contrary to cereal and oil prices, the Sugar Price Index fell by 4.7 percent in April.

The decline was attributed to positive production expectations in China and Thailand, as well as the start of the harvest season in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer.

The FAO Dairy Price Index, on the other hand, fell by 1.1 percent due to high production capacity in Europe and Oceania.

The FAO also published its Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.

In the report, the 2025 global cereal production forecast was increased by 6 percent compared to the previous year, reaching 3 billion 40 million metric tons. While it was stated that this level represents record production, it was noted that the global supply outlook for the 2025-2026 period remains largely positive.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ WARNING FOR WHEAT PRODUCTION

The FAO report also included assessments regarding the 2026 world wheat production forecast.

Accordingly, it was reported that world wheat production is expected to decline to 817 million tons. It was noted that this forecast points to a decrease of approximately 2 percent compared to last year, but production is still projected to remain above the five-year average.