Deutsche Bank updates interest rate, inflation, and dollar forecasts! How much will it be by the end of 2025?
Deutsche Bank has updated its forecasts regarding the Turkish economy. According to the bank's analysts, the dollar exchange rate is expected to reach 43 TL by the end of 2025.
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Deutsche Bank analysts, pointing to concerns stemming from the resilient nature of inflation, have raised their year-end 2024 inflation expectation from 26 percent to 28 percent. Furthermore, they stated their year-end forecast for the dollar/TL exchange rate as 43.
In the report prepared by Yiğit Onay and Christiyan Wietoska, it was emphasized that a significant slowdown in inflation could be quite difficult. Analysts anticipate a 250 basis point cut in the policy rate in January and estimate that the interest rate will fall to 40 percent by April.
Additionally, while the year-end 2024 policy rate expectation was raised from 30 percent to 32.5 percent, the year-end 2026 dollar/TL forecast was announced as 49.