Oil prices retreat

Concerns over oil supply have eased as diplomatic efforts in the Israel-Hamas war have yielded partial results, with oil prices falling by more than 2% after having maintained their upward trend since the early days of the conflict.

12punto 24 October 2023

Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Monday as intensifying diplomatic efforts in the Middle East to contain the war between Israel and Hamas eased investor concerns regarding potential supply disruptions.

According to Reuters, Brent crude oil futures were trading at $90.14 per barrel on Monday evening, down 2.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were down 2.5% at $85.89 per barrel.

EU CALLS FOR A CEASEFIRE

European Union leaders will call for a "humanitarian pause" in the war this week to allow aid to reach Palestinians in Gaza; the leaders of France and the Netherlands are also set to visit Israel this week. Meanwhile, aid convoys began reaching the Gaza Strip from Egypt over the weekend.

"The risk to oil supply seems to have diminished. People are reducing their positions until they see how this plays out," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

MORGAN STANLEY: PROBABILITY OF A YEAR-END RALLY IN U.S. STOCKS IS DIMINISHING

According to Reuters, Brent crude oil futures were trading at $90.14 per barrel on Monday evening, down 2.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were down 2.5% at $85.89 per barrel.

EU CALLS FOR A CEASEFIRE

"The risk to oil supply seems to have diminished. People are reducing their positions until they see how this plays out," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

GOLDMAN SACHS RAISES $4 BILLION FOR FUND TO MAKE GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS

Nevertheless, Israel continued its bombardment of Gaza on Monday after conducting airstrikes on southern Lebanon overnight. Both oil benchmarks had recorded weekly gains over the past two weeks, driven by the possibility of supply disruptions in the Middle East, the world's largest oil-supplying region, should the conflict spread.

"Oil prices, which have potentially risen due to the possibility of the war spreading in the region, will increase global inflation. If this happens, monetary tightening could resume and global oil demand growth could decrease," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

U.S. MOVE ON VENEZUELA

Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden announced last week that sanctions on OPEC member Venezuela had been suspended following an agreement between the Venezuelan government and the opposition. While this is expected to increase oil supply, it is unclear to what extent it can mitigate the impact of supply risks in the Middle East.

"This move is expected to add 200,000 to 300,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude oil per day to the global export market, which is not a volume that will move the market on its own, and these barrels are not expected to arrive anytime soon," said RBC analyst Michael Tran in a note.