Dollar exceeds 30 TL, new forecast from US-based JPMorgan! How much will it be at the end of the year?
US investment bank JPMorgan has raised its year-end forecast for the Dollar/TL exchange rate, which has surpassed 30 TL.
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The dollar tested 30 TL against the Turkish Lira today (January 11), reaching its highest level in history.
Following the dollar's record-breaking performance, US investment bank JPMorgan has raised and revised its 2024 year-end forecast for the Dollar/TL exchange rate.
REVISED FROM 34 TL TO 36 TL
In a report published by strategists including Saad Siddiqui and Fatih Akçelik, they stated, "Positive real returns and cheap valuations present an argument for the potential for real appreciation for the lira. However, this is dependent on the continuation of the disinflation process," and revised their 2024 year-end forecast for the dollar/TL from 34 to 36.
According to the report cited by Bloomberg HT, the stated policy goals and the implementations so far are encouraging. However, for the consolidation and strengthening of these initial gains, investors will need ongoing evidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path.
"The trend of depreciation in the lira in recent months points to a trade-off between reserve accumulation and nominal exchange rate performance. In the short term, this trend hinders inflows into the local currency and poses a challenge for the disinflation process," the report stated, adding, "However, as long as this depreciation remains below what is priced in the futures markets for investors, which we believe will be the case in the coming months, the TL still offers a reasonable total return opportunity."