Dollar/TL starts the new week with a record: Global markets eye US employment data

The foreign exchange markets have started the new week with volatility. The Dollar/TL exchange rate saw a new peak, rising to 45.63 with a limited increase in the first trades of the week. In global markets, the dollar's strong performance throughout June is drawing attention.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the US dollar against major currencies, has risen by approximately 2.5 percent throughout June. This outlook indicates that the index is heading for its strongest monthly gain since July 2025.

US employment data to be released this week will be closely watched in the markets. It is assessed that the data could be influential on expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path.

EURO/TL ALSO MOVES UPWARD

In parallel with the rise in Dollar/TL, Euro/TL also showed a tendency to recover in the new week. Following last week's selling trend, Euro/TL rose to 53.21 in morning trading.

On the currency side, while technical indicators point to the maintenance of the rising channel outlook in Dollar/TL, it is stated that the risk of profit-taking at high levels may remain on the agenda in the short term. Market participants are monitoring support levels for potential pullbacks and the upper band of the channel for upward movements.

At the top of the list of factors supporting the dollar on a global scale are safe-haven demand, rising US bond yields, and geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East. The decision by the parties to hold talks in Qatar following the harsh statements exchanged between the US and Iran over the weekend has not completely eliminated uncertainty.

Concerns regarding energy shipments around the Strait of Hormuz and upward pressure on oil prices are also keeping inflation worries alive in the markets. This picture contributes to the dollar remaining strong against other major currencies.

While the dollar index stabilized at 101.34, the Japanese yen saw the 161.75 level against the dollar, continuing its trend near its lowest levels in approximately 40 years. The Euro/dollar parity, on the other hand, moved sideways around 1.1386 following the low levels tested last week.

Analysts state that the "higher for longer" interest rate expectation regarding the Fed is increasing support for the dollar. MUFG Bank Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan stated that downward movements in the dollar could remain limited unless a clear dovish pivot from the Fed or a significant deterioration in the US economy is seen.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Head of International Economics Joseph Capurso expressed the view that the "US exceptionalism" theme could continue to support the dollar in the coming weeks.

The information contained in this news report does not constitute investment advice.