Duran Bülbül, who hit the mark on the last minimum wage hike, speaks out on the upcoming increase!

Berkay GÜNEŞ    12punto.com.tr 

We conducted a comprehensive interview with Prof. Dr. Duran Bülbül regarding the economy and the minimum wage agenda. We asked Bülbül, one of 12punto's columnists, about his foreign exchange rate forecast, his expectations for the minimum wage, the reasons for the increasing bankruptcies in various sectors, and the statements made by critical figures in the field of economics. Providing clear and simple answers to our questions, Bülbül did not hide his concerns regarding the problems that the rise in foreign exchange could create and the issue of the minimum wage. Here are those questions and the answers of Prof. Dr. Duran Bülbül...

What would the Turkish people experience if the dollar reached the 61 TL level?

Turkey has an external debt of approximately 550 billion dollars. An increase in the exchange rate to 61 TL means that every 1 TL increase in the dollar compared to today's level significantly increases the external debt burden. A 20 TL increase brings an additional debt burden of approximately 1 trillion TL.

This also means a devaluation of approximately 50%. Exporters may find relief in the short term, but since we are dependent on imported products, import inflation and foreign exchange inflation will rise sharply. It is inevitable that inflation will rise by at least 30%.

In this case, none of the year-end inflation and budget targets will be met. I expect a 40–50% price hike in food, consumer goods, and oil prices. As costs increase, the producer will pass this burden on to the consumer; the rich will become richer, and the poor will become poorer.

What is your forecast for the minimum wage?

We see that personnel expenses in the 2026 budget have been increased by approximately 30%. If this increase is reflected in the same way for minimum wage earners and retirees, the minimum wage should be around 28,600 TL.

The current concept of the minimum wage has lost its validity. A minimum wage that remains below the hunger and poverty thresholds is not sustainable. As Atatürk did at the İzmir Economic Congress, the minimum wage should be updated every 3 months.

There is contraction and bankruptcy in many sectors. What measures should the government take?

To stop the collapse of the economy, the government needed to urgently introduce a stock amnesty, tax amnesty, social security premium amnesty, and Bağ-Kur premium amnesty. However, on the contrary, foreclosure pressures on businesses have increased. Even production tools are being seized. These practices are blocking the path of the economy. In the coming period, an increase in bankruptcies and a deepening of the contraction are inevitable.

How do you evaluate Cevdet Yılmaz's statement regarding a '2 trillion 208 billion TL budget deficit'?

“If the taxes that were waived had not been waived, the budget would not have had a deficit. The figure announced by the Vice President is already in the medium-term program; however, this figure will not hold, and the budget deficit will exceed 3 trillion TL.

The non-interest deficit is currently around 156 billion TL. It is projected to turn positive in 2026, but this is an imaginary forecast. When even exchange rate forecasts do not hold, it is impossible for budget forecasts to hold.”

Mehmet Şimşek said in Qatar that inflation would fall to single digits. Is it possible?

Mr. Şimşek's statements are like those of an IMF finance minister. It is impossible for inflation to fall to single digits in the short or medium term. In countries like ours, when inflation falls below 15%, contraction, unemployment, and bankruptcies begin.

The inflation rate required for Turkey's sustainable growth model is in the 12–15% band. Bringing inflation down to single digits would stifle economic activity and drag Turkey into a serious crisis.