Economist İnan Mutlu issues 'an object is approaching' warning
Economist İnan Mutlu, known for his data-driven analyses in economic circles, has issued a critical warning for the Turkish economy with striking charts he shared. Arguing that the advantage of falling global energy prices has come to an end, Mutlu claimed that the economic program under the management of Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek is facing a severe test.
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ISTANBUL – Economist İnan Mutlu, in an analysis shared on his social media account, claimed that the Turkish economy is facing a risk of "serious destruction." Using the famous "an object is approaching" line, Mutlu pointed out that the deterioration in inflation and cost balances will deepen.
"THEY WERE BENEFITING FROM ENERGY PRICES"
Attributing Minister Mehmet Şimşek's performance to date to external factors, Mutlu stated the following:
“Mehmet Şimşek was benefiting from the decline in energy prices globally, but now that benefit has been exhausted. An object is truly approaching.”
This criticism by Mutlu represents an assertion that the disinflation process under Şimşek's management has largely remained afloat thanks to the favorable climate in global energy markets.
DOES THE CHART SHOW DANGER?
The chart compiled from TurkStat data, which İnan Mutlu shared as the basis for his analysis, reveals the change in the gap between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Foreign Producer Price Index (YD-ÜFE) Energy item.
According to the data in the chart:
Cost Explosion: It is observed that the YD-ÜFE Energy costs, shown with the red line, have made a dramatic jump of 88.9% as of March 2026 after remaining at negative or low levels for a long time.
Risk of Reflection on CPI: Despite the effort of the CPI, represented by the blue line, to remain stable at the 30.9% level, it is predicted that this massive increase in energy costs ("the object") will place great pressure on consumer prices.
A DIFFICULT TURNING POINT FOR ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
According to the analyses of economic editors, this picture shows that the risk of "imported cost inflation" has returned. Mutlu's warning indicates that the current account deficit and inflation, which have been balanced by the decline in energy prices until now, will be left alone with structural problems once this "protective shield" is removed.
According to economist Mutlu, as the era of low energy costs ends, how much resistance the economic management's current interest rate and tightening policies will show against this new cost shock is seen by the markets as the biggest question mark.