Economists criticize TurkStat data reliability and cost of living after July inflation figures

Following the Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TurkStat) announcement of July inflation data, economists have shared their assessments regarding the reliability of the data, living conditions, and the structure of price increases.

According to TurkStat, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.78 percent on a monthly basis and 31.75 percent annually in July. Despite the monthly increase remaining below expectations, the announced figures have reignited debates over the persistence of inflation and the cost of living felt by the public.

Economist Aziz Çelik criticized TurkStat for not disclosing the item price list despite final court rulings. Çelik stated, "TurkStat could do anything and it wouldn't matter! No matter what TurkStat does, it cannot be credible regarding inflation data."

Pointing to the ruling by the Ankara 6th Administrative Court, Çelik argued that a public institution that does not comply with judicial decisions cannot be taken seriously. At the center of the debate is the fact that the product-based price data used by TurkStat in its inflation calculations is not shared with the public.

EMPHASIS ON LIVELIHOOD AND FOOD

Prof. Dr. Serap Durusoy stated that the announced data is far from reflecting the cost of living faced by citizens. Durusoy said that the monthly 1.78 percent and annual 31.75 percent figures show that "the darkness in the economy continues."

Reminding that the hunger threshold has risen to 36,940 TL and that the rent increase ceiling for July was 32.90 percent, Durusoy emphasized that inflation is creating a struggle for survival. She noted that despite the data coming in below expectations, no significant breakthrough has been observed.

Economics Professor Fatih Özatay evaluated the inflation outlook with the words, "Inflation is rigid." Prof. Dr. Şenol Babuşcu drew attention to the difference between TurkStat and independent inflation calculations, noting that TurkStat's monthly figure remained at 58 percent of the rate announced by ENAG.

Former Central Bank General Manager Ali Çufadar pointed to the increase in vegetable and fruit prices in particular, stating that agricultural policies should be questioned. Çufadar stated that retirees and low-income earners are experiencing nutritional problems and expressed his expectation for a technical interest rate adjustment from the Central Bank in August without delay.

Former CBRT Chief Economist Ali Hakan Kara stated that when looking at the positive side of the data, it points to the lowest July inflation in the last 6 years. Kara assessed that if no new external shock occurs, CPI inflation could fall slightly below 30 percent by the end of the year, and the policy rate could be lowered to around 35 percent.

Economist İris Cibre also expressed that there is "stickiness" in food, services, and producer prices. Cibre stated that there is a demand-driven slowdown in goods but that she does not see a positive signal for September, announcing that she has lowered her year-end inflation expectation to 30 percent and her policy rate expectation to 35 percent.