Eğilmez: Immigrants are not seen as part of the population

In his personal blog post, Mahfi Eğilmez addressed the labor force, employment, and unemployment rates of the population. Economist Mahfi Eğilmez stated, "Although the activities of immigrants, the goods and services they produce or contribute to, the income they earn, and the expenditures they make are included in GDP calculations, they are not included in the per capita income calculation because they are not accepted as part of the population. As a result, per capita income (because GDP is divided by a smaller population) turns out to be higher than it should be."

Eğilmez's statements are as follows:

The world population is estimated to be around 7.9 billion. Turkey's population is 85,279,553. Accordingly, Turkey's population makes up roughly 1.1 percent of the world population. Women make up 49.9 percent of Turkey's population, and men make up 50.1 percent. Approximately 1.9 million people are illiterate. 7.6 million people are literate but have not completed any school. There are 17 million primary school graduates, 13.7 million middle school graduates, 5.1 million primary education graduates, 17.9 million high school graduates, 12.3 million university and college graduates, and 1.8 million people with master's degrees or higher. (The reason the sum of those counted here is lower than the total population is the existence of those under 6 years old and those whose education status is unknown.) In the period between 2019 and 2021, the life expectancy at birth in Turkey was 77.7.

In 2022, Turkey was the 18th largest country in the world in terms of population (the chart is taken from the TUIK, World Population Day, 2023, July 6, 2023 News Bulletin).

The population in Turkey is determined by the Address Based Population Registration System (ADNKS). ADNKS is a registration system conducted by TUIK where population information is kept up-to-date according to people's places of residence, population movements can be monitored at any moment, and individuals are matched with their residential addresses according to their T.R. Identity Number in the MERNIS (Central Civil Registration System) records. The ADNKS system, which has been in use since 2007, has replaced the old census system that was implemented with curfews.

In international law, the concept of refugee is used to cover people who are outside the country of which they are a citizen and who do not return to the country of which they are a citizen due to race, religion, nationality, or political opinion. An asylum seeker is a person who seeks international protection as a refugee but whose status has not yet been officially recognized where they are. An immigrant covers the person and family members who migrate to another country or region to improve their financial and social situation and to increase the future expectations of themselves or their families. Different numbers are put forward regarding the number of immigrants, refugees, and asylum seekers in Turkey. The Presidency of Migration Management announced this number as 4.9 million people as of 2023. Asylum seekers are not included in the population. For foreigners to be included in the population within this system, they must have a residence permit and be registered at an address. However, the number of Syrians, the largest group of immigrants, who can obtain a residence permit and register an address is very small.

The interesting part is that although the activities of immigrants, the goods and services they produce or contribute to, the income they earn, and the expenditures they make are included in GDP calculations, they are not included in the per capita income calculation because they are not accepted as part of the population. As a result, per capita income (because GDP is divided by a smaller population) turns out to be higher than it should be.

The chart below shows Turkey's population and population growth rate since 1935 (The chart was prepared by me using TUIK population statistics).

According to the chart, the decline in the population growth rate that began after the 1980s continued until the 2000s, and then an increase was observed at the same rate for a while. In the last few years, the growth rate has declined slightly more. This development is the most obvious sign that the population has begun to age.

The vast majority of the population in Turkey lives in cities. According to the latest data, more than 85 percent of the population lives in cities, and nearly 15 percent lives in rural areas. (The chart below is taken from the TUIK, May 11, 2023 TUIK News Bulletin)

Dense city refers to settlements where at least half of the population lives in city center grids, medium-density city refers to settlements that do not meet the conditions of dense city and rural, and rural refers to settlements where more than half of the population lives in rural grids. Accordingly, this means that 68 percent of the population in Turkey lives in city center grids.