Expectations for a September peak on Borsa İstanbul: Analyst's assessment on CBRT, inflation, and stocks

Pusula Investment Consulting and Strategy Director Volkan Dükkancık evaluated the possibility of Borsa İstanbul testing new peaks in September, based on the interest rate path, hot money inflows, and upcoming inflation data.

Speaking on the "Piyasanın Pusulası" program broadcast on Nasıl Bir Ekonomi TV, Dükkancık stated that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) had made a more direct and earlier move on interest rates than expected, and that the excess liquidity in the market was withdrawn with this step. According to Dükkancık, the expectation that the CBRT might continue the process with a new interest rate cut in October rather than at its September 10 meeting is coming to the fore in the market.

Regarding the fiscal side, Dükkancık stated that efforts are being made to slow down the hot money coming to Turkey due to carry trade during the reserve accumulation period through taxation, interpreting this picture as a series of positive developments for the market.

Stating that foreign investor interest is currently concentrated more on the short-term interest rate side and that a strong entry into the stock market has not yet begun, Dükkancık said the process is progressing in stages. He also noted that the easing of US-Iran tensions is supporting global risk appetite.

INFLATION DATA SEEN AS A CRITICAL THRESHOLD

Dükkancık predicted that if Borsa İstanbul remains permanently above 14,500 points and the August inflation to be announced on September 3 does not exceed expectations and remains in the 1.5-2 percent band, the index could renew its historical peaks in September. In this scenario, he stated that the expectation that the CBRT will return to an interest rate cut cycle could carry the index above the 15,000 level.

In his stock-based evaluations, Dükkancık stated that he likes Borusan Boru (BRSAN) in terms of its fundamental story, noting that the company continues to receive strong tenders following its US investment. He expressed that the transition to a production and export-based model in the US could make companies investing directly in this market advantageous. He noted that he is monitoring the 650 lira level as a stop-loss point for Borusan Boru, and that 800 lira could be targeted after stabilization in the 650-700 band.

Stating that there was a correction in Forte after the rapid rise following the balance sheet, Dükkancık said that the movement could continue after stabilization around 100-115-120 lira, and that 110 lira could be followed as a stop-loss level. For Cordsa, he stated that the balance sheet did not come in weak, but there is a risk of closing the gap towards the 75-80 lira range in the short term.

DIVERGENCE IN ENERGY, TRANSPORTATION, AND PETROCHEMICAL STOCKS

Stating that he views Enerjisa (ENJSA) positively for medium and long-term portfolios, Dükkancık noted that the company will continue to be supported as long as the need for electrical infrastructure and transformation in Turkey persists. Pointing to the regular dividend structure, Dükkancık stated that closes above 115 lira could bring historical peak discussions back to the agenda.

Speaking more cautiously for Aksa Enerji (AKSEN), Dükkancık said that there was a correction after the rapid rise in the stock and that there is a risk of an 8-10 percent pullback towards the 70-75 lira band as long as a close above the 10-day moving average is not seen.

Stating that current levels have become more reasonable in Sara Enerji, one of the new IPOs, after the sharp fluctuations following the public offering, Dükkancık recommended patience to investors. In Dinamik Isı, he said that buyers stand out around 4.30 lira and sellers in the 5.60-5.70 lira band; and that the stock could try 5.60 lira again as long as it stays above 4.80 lira.

Noting that the 286 lira resistance should be watched in TAV Airports, Dükkancık stated that if strength is drawn from the averages in the 270-275 lira range, 300 lira and above could come to the agenda. In Petkim, he said that there are signs of a turnaround from the bottom in the balance sheet, and that the stock's stabilization in the 18-20 lira band could create an opportunity in the medium term.

Dükkancık expressed a negative view on Vestel due to debt and operating profitability. Stating that the debt restructuring process should be monitored before the technical chart in the company, Dükkancık gave the message that investors should be more selective in companies with high debt.