Expectations of a new rally in gold: Record forecasts from fund managers
Global fund managers believe that gold prices could reach significant levels in the coming period. According to survey results, while a large portion of investors expect new peaks for the precious metal, risk appetite in the market and the weight of stocks and commodities in portfolios are also drawing attention.
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According to a recent survey evaluating February 2025 data, the interest of fund managers in gold continues unabated. Although approximately 20% of participants believe that gold has peaked at current levels, another 19% point out that prices above $7,000 per ounce could be possible. In the spotlight, the average expectation is that the price of gold could rise to around $6,200.
Half of the investors chose to increase their long gold positions in their portfolios for the second consecutive month. This dynamic once again highlights the role of gold in shaping risk perception in global markets.
BALANCES ARE SHIFTING IN ASSET ALLOCATION
Fund managers have increased their interest in stocks since December 2024, and the net weight in this asset class has reached its highest level in recent years. While combined portfolios consisting of commodities and stocks have reached a level not seen since January 2022, the portfolio ratio in long-term bonds has remained at its lowest level since September 2022. The survey results revealed that a net 57% of investors expect interest rate hikes for long-term bonds, while 46% anticipate a decline in short-term interest rates.
While the interest of investment funds in emerging market stocks and European securities is increasing, net underweight positions in US stocks stand out. Demand for energy, basic materials, and consumer staples sector stocks is rising, while there are outflows from technology, US stocks, and dollar assets.
RISK WARNINGS AND MARKET UNCERTAINTIES STAND OUT
Despite the increasing investment appetite, striking changes are also observed in risk indicators. The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator reached the 9.5 level, entering the contrarian signal zone, which serves as a “sell” signal for investors.
While concerns about an “artificial intelligence bubble” are frequently voiced among fund managers at 25%, 43% of the segment point out that the root cause of a potential systemic credit crisis could arise in private equity and private credit markets.
Market experts point out that despite the persistence of expectations for a steady rise in safe-haven assets like gold, sudden fluctuations in the global economy and new threats could rapidly affect pricing.