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Expert issues warning to civil servants and civil servant retirees with bad news: 'A big shock awaits'

Stating that civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive a raise below the official inflation rate in July 2024, Prof. Dr. Aziz Çelik wrote, "Thus, the increase they received in January 2024 will be taken back."

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Birgün columnist Prof. Dr. Aziz Çelik delivered the bad news to civil servants and civil servant retirees in a post on his social media account.

Reminding that civil servants and civil servant retirees received a 49.25 percent raise due to the regulation in the collective bargaining agreement, Çelik said, "They will receive lower raises than the official inflation rate in the subsequent 6-month periods."

Çelik recalled the words of AKP Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on January 16:

"The annual salary increase rates for all our retirees will be equalized this coming July. In the salary increases for the second half of the year, while civil servant retirees will receive the inflation difference, SSK and BAĞKUR retirees will receive the full inflation rate."

"THE SHOCK THAT CIVIL SERVANTS AND CIVIL SERVANT RETIREES WILL EXPERIENCE LIES IN THE BACKGROUND OF THESE SENTENCES"

Evaluating Erdoğan's words, Çelik stated, "The shock that civil servants and civil servant retirees will experience in July 2024 lies in the background of these sentences. President Erdoğan revealed an important detail in the 7th Term Collective Bargaining Agreement."

Çelik continued as follows:

"Due to the strange raise regulations in the 7th Term Collective Bargaining Agreement, which is the joint product of the Memur-Sen confederation, the Public Servants Arbitration Board, and the Government, civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive raises below the official inflation rate in July 2024, January 2025, and July 2025. Thus, the increase they received in January 2024 will be taken back!"

Aziz Çelik explained the following:

"According to the 7th Term Collective Bargaining Agreement, a 15 percent raise was foreseen for civil servants and civil servant retirees for the first six months of 2024, 10 percent for the second six months of 2024, 6 percent for the first six months of 2025, and 5 percent for the second six months of 2025.

If the CPI index (official inflation) of the previous six months is higher than these foreseen increases, the difference is added to civil servant salaries and retiree pensions.

For example, the January 2024 raise was calculated as follows: 137.57/106*1.15=1.4925 (49.25 percent increase).

The explanation of this formula is as follows: The official inflation between July 2023 and December 2023 rose from 100 to 137.57. A 6 percent collective bargaining raise had been applied to salaries in July 2023. Salaries had risen from 100 to 106 with the collective bargaining raise. Thus, an inflation difference of 29.78 percent was found with the 137.57/106 operation. This difference was then increased by the January 2024 collective bargaining raise rate (15 percent), and the total raise became 49.25 percent.

However, a diabolical raise model is hidden in the 7th Term Collective Bargaining raises. Collective bargaining raises are not added to inflation. On the contrary, they are subtracted from inflation. On the other hand, the collective bargaining raise rate decreases every six months (such as 15 percent, 10 percent, 6 percent, 5 percent). The collective bargaining raise applied in the previous six-month period is subtracted from the official inflation.

According to this model, what will the raises for civil servants and civil servant retirees be in July 2024?

If the official inflation for the first six months of 2024 is 20 percent, the operation will be as follows: 120/115*1.10=114.78 (14.78 percent). Thus, in July 2024, civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive a raise 5.22 points below the official inflation (20 percent - 14.78 percent).

If the official inflation for the first six months of 2024 is 25 percent, the operation will be as follows: 125/115*1.10=114.78 (19.56 percent). Thus, in July 2024, civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive a raise 5.44 points below the official inflation (25 percent - 19.56 percent).

This decline will continue in the subsequent six-month periods. Thus, the increase that civil servants and civil servant retirees received in January 2024 will be taken back. As a result, throughout the 7th Term Collective Bargaining Agreement (2024-2025), civil servants and civil servant retirees will have received raises below the official inflation rate.

Whereas what should have happened was that the collective bargaining raise should have been added on top of the past inflation. If this had been the case, when the 6-month official inflation was 20 percent in July 2024, the raise for civil servants and civil servant retirees would have been 32 percent. Civil servants and retirees would have received a welfare share. Now, let alone a welfare share, they will remain even below the official inflation! What a collective bargaining agreement, right!

There is a diabolical raise model in the 7th Term Collective Bargaining Agreement. Civil servants and civil servant retirees will face this reality in July 2024.

This table is a gift from Memur-Sen, the Public Servants Arbitration Board, and the Government to civil servants and civil servant retirees! Congratulations!"