Four-month inflation gap revealed: Pension raise calculations have changed! Bad news for those expecting a welfare share...
As the July raise rates for millions of civil servants and retirees become clearer, the weakening possibility of an additional raise has caused disappointment in Ankara's political circles.
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According to the latest data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), following a total inflation increase of 10.04 percent in January, February, and March, the 4.18 percent increase announced in April brought the four-month cumulative inflation gap to 14.64 percent. This increase will be directly reflected in the pensions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees.
Civil servants and civil servant retirees, however, are facing a lower raise rate due to differences stemming from collective bargaining agreements. According to data shared by Social Security Institution (SGK) expert İsa Karakaş, the four-month raise rate for this group remains at only 10.51 percent, which is approximately 4.13 percent behind the actual inflation in the market. The additional flat-rate raise demands that civil servant retirees have been waiting for some time are not being met.
Inflation expectations for May and June will also be decisive for the raises to be implemented in July. According to the Market Participants Survey conducted by the Central Bank, if inflation occurs at 1.89 percent and 1.52 percent respectively over the next two months, the raise rate that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive could reach 18.58 percent. If inflation remains around 1.50 percent for both months, the total increase will be at the level of 18.10 percent. Economists expect the raise rate to be realized in July to be between 17.5 percent and 19.5 percent. Conversely, civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive an increase approximately 4 percent lower than these rates due to the collective bargaining agreement.
While the impact of the strict inflation policies implemented by the government in Ankara is being debated, it is being discussed in political circles that there is no preparation for an additional welfare share or a flat-rate increase. According to SGK expert Karakaş, only the mandatory inflation gap is currently on the table, and additional regulations are not being considered for the time being.
Civil servant retirees, meanwhile, continue to express their grievances as the additional raises they have been waiting for since 2023 have once again failed to find a response.