Four scenarios for the January 2027 raise: New calculations for civil servant and retiree salaries
Based on year-end inflation forecasts, a range of 8.70-10.67 percent for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and 6.67-8.60 percent for civil servants stands out for January 2027.
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Following the statement by Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek that salary increases will be at least equal to the inflation rate, calculations for the raise that civil servants, retired civil servants, and SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027 have returned to the agenda.
While the 6-month inflation data for the second half of the year directly determines the raise rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, a collective bargaining increase is added to the inflation difference for civil servants and retired civil servants. For this reason, small differences in year-end inflation forecasts are reflected in salary tables as different rates.
FOUR INFLATION SCENARIOS
The calculations took into account the CBRT's 28 percent year-end inflation forecast, the 28.4 percent expectation in the Medium-Term Program (OVP), the 29.61 percent forecast in the Market Participants Survey, and the 30.32 percent rate projected by FKB & İÜ.
| Scenario | 6-month inflation | SSK and Bağ-Kur raise | Civil servant and retired civil servant raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBRT 28 percent forecast | 8.70 percent | 8.70 percent | 6.67 percent |
| OVP 28.4 percent forecast | 9.04 percent | 9.04 percent | 7.00 percent |
| Market Participants Survey 29.61 percent | Approximately 10.06 percent | Approximately 10.07 percent | 8.01 percent |
| FKB & İÜ 30.32 percent forecast | 10.67 percent | 10.67 percent | 8.60 percent |
According to this table, the raise rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees varies between 8.70 percent and 10.67 percent depending on the scenario. For civil servants and retired civil servants, the total increase, including the inflation difference and the collective bargaining effect, starts from 6.67 percent and goes up to 8.60 percent.
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE LOWEST SALARIES
If the lowest pension, currently applied at 23,552 TL, is increased according to the realized 6-month inflation, the new base pension is expected to be between 25,600 TL and 26,065 TL.
The lowest civil servant salary, including family allowance, rises from the current level of 70,224 TL to 74,908 TL with a 6.67 percent raise, 75,140 TL with a 7 percent raise, 75,849 TL with an 8.01 percent raise, and 76,263 TL with an 8.60 percent raise.
A similar range stands out for the lowest retired civil servant pension. The current amount of 31,527.77 TL is calculated to be between 33,631 TL and 34,239 TL depending on the scenarios.
SAMPLE CALCULATIONS FOR RETIREES
According to sample calculations made on the current salary for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, the salary of a retiree receiving 25,000 TL per month varies between 27,175 TL and 27,668 TL depending on the scenario. For a 30,000 TL monthly salary, the new amount is calculated between 32,610 TL and 33,201 TL; and for a 40,000 TL monthly salary, it is calculated in the range of 43,480 TL to 44,268 TL.
The table for civil servant salaries also differs by profession. For example, the specialist doctor's salary is projected at 182,305 TL in the 28 percent inflation scenario and 184,403 TL in the 29.61 percent scenario. The teacher's salary is calculated between 88,895 TL and 90,301 TL in the same scenarios; while the police officer's salary is calculated between 98,901 TL and 100,478 TL.
The exact raise rates will be clarified after the inflation data for the second half of the year is completed. For this reason, current calculations are evaluated as possible salary tables based on year-end inflation expectations.