Fuel industry warning: Triple-digit prices for gasoline and diesel could be seen in the second half of 2027

As uncertainties in oil markets, exchange rates, and tax regulations increase pressure on fuel prices, a notable warning regarding 2027 has come from the industry. Termopet Chairman of the Board Cemil Direkci stated that it is likely for the liter prices of gasoline and diesel to reach triple-digit levels in the second half of 2027.

While price increases in fuel have accelerated in recent years, the liter price of gasoline has exceeded 70 TL, and the liter price of diesel has surpassed 80 TL. In his assessment to ANKA, Direkci said that inflation, exchange rate increases, and ÖTV regulations are among the primary factors determining the costs that will be reflected at the pump.

WHY IS THE PUMP PRICE NOT CHANGING?

Drawing attention to the sliding scale system (eşel mobil) applied to fuel, Direkci stated that a portion of the price hikes is covered by the ÖTV, while discounts are not directly reflected at the pump. Stating that according to the decision published in the Official Gazette on July 3, 25 percent of the hikes are covered by the ÖTV and the remaining 75 percent is reflected in pump sales prices, Direkci said that discounts are offset against the ÖTV.

“25 percent of the hikes are covered by the ÖTV, and the remaining 75 percent is reflected in pump sales prices. If a discount comes onto the agenda, the entirety of it is offset against the ÖTV. Pump sales prices do not change.”

According to Direkci, discounts are not expected to be reflected in pump prices for some time. The reason for this is that discounts will continue to be offset on the tax side until the ÖTV levels for gasoline and diesel reach those seen before March.

Responding to the question “Will a liter of fuel reach 100 TL?” with “Almost certainly,” Direkci noted that inflation is expected to be around 30 percent this year, and in the best-case scenario, a level of 20 percent could be projected for 2027. Direkci expressed that with the effect of movements in the exchange rate and ÖTV increases, triple-digit prices could be seen for both gasoline and diesel in the second half of 2027.

Stating that a slowdown in diesel consumption has also been observed in the sector, Direkci emphasized that diesel is an important indicator for commercial activities. Noting that the decline in diesel, which is used heavily in agriculture and transportation, points to a slowdown in commercial activities, Direkci said that disinflation policies and high prices may have accelerated this trend.

Stating that consumer behavior at fuel stations has also changed, Direkci expressed that the phrase “50 TL worth of fuel,” which was frequently used in the past, has now been replaced by purchases of “500 TL.” Regarding reactions to price increases, Direkci argued that citizens adapt to new levels in a short time.