2025 economic agenda is busy! All eyes on retiree and civil servant salary hikes
The 2025 economic agenda is starting off busy. While reducing inflation, growth, and employment are among the priorities, the raises for civil servants and retirees will be clarified based on the inflation data to be announced on January 3. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will hold 8 Monetary Policy Committee meetings this year. Changes in economic management are also expected. Additionally, growth data and budget negotiations are among the important topics of the year.
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Economic management will focus on inflation, growth, and employment in 2025, and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will hold 8 Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meetings during this period instead of 12.
A busy economic agenda awaits the country in 2025.
ALL EYES ON CIVIL SERVANT AND RETIREE HIKES: INFLATION TO BE ANNOUNCED
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will share the December and 2024 inflation data with the public on January 3. With the announcement of this data, the 6-month raise difference for civil servants and retirees will be clarified. Additionally, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive their salaries with a raise at the rate of the last 6 months of inflation from last year.
GROWTH DATA TO BE ANNOUNCED IN FEBRUARY
TÜİK will announce the growth data for 2024 on February 28. According to the most recently released data, the country's economy recorded a growth of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024. Growth data for the first three quarters of 2025 will be shared with the public on May 30, September 1, and December 1. According to the Medium-Term Program (OVP), growth is targeted at 3.5 percent by the end of 2024 and 4 percent in 2025. Employment is expected to increase by an annual average of 758 thousand people during the program period. The unemployment rate is targeted to be 9.6 percent in 2025.
PPK TO MEET 8 TIMES THIS YEAR
According to the TCMB calendar, it will hold 8 PPK meetings this year instead of 12. The Bank will also release 8 PPK meeting summaries, 4 inflation reports, and 2 financial stability reports.
The Bank will hold its PPK meetings on January 23, March 6, April 17, June 19, July 24, September 11, October 23, and December 11. Markets will closely follow the interest rates and messages announced after the PPK meetings.
INFLATION REPORT TO BE ANNOUNCED
TCMB Governor Fatih Karahan will announce the Inflation Report on February 7, May 22, August 14, and November 7.
Work on a new OVP covering the 2026-2028 period is planned to begin in the second half of the year.
The program will set out macroeconomic targets determined in light of global, regional, and national economic developments, as well as policies to be followed in economic and social areas.
BUDGET NEGOTIATIONS TO BEGIN
Following the publication of the OVP and the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan in the Official Gazette, budget proposals and investment program work for public administrations will gain momentum.
The budget must be submitted to the Presidency of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) by October 17 at the latest, within the framework of the relevant legal regulations.
After the proposal is referred to the Planning and Budget Committee by the TBMM Presidency, the budgets of the Presidency, ministries, and affiliated institutions and organizations will be discussed.
The budget marathon will end after the discussions in the TBMM General Assembly.
