Bad news for retirees expecting a flat-rate raise! It is not on the government's agenda

How much of a raise will millions of retirees and civil servants receive in July? While there is curiosity about what the percentage of the July raise will be, estimates continue to be made. With an 18 percent increase on the agenda for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and 17 percent for civil servants and civil servant retirees, it is estimated that the lowest pension will rise from 14,469 liras to the 17,250 lira level.

Retirees and civil servants are wondering whether there will be a flat-rate raise or a welfare share in addition to the inflation adjustment, but experts state that such a regulation is not on the government's agenda.

Once the 6-month inflation difference is determined, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, as well as civil servants and civil servant retirees, will learn what percentage of a raise they will receive. Minimum wage earners, on the other hand, are wondering if there will be a July raise. After the Central Bank kept its year-end inflation target fixed at 24 percent, all expectations were dashed, and Social Security Institution (SGK) Expert Özgür Erdursun made a statement regarding the minimum wage on SZC TV.

"THE STATE WILL NOT PROVIDE AN INTERIM RAISE TO THE MINIMUM WAGE"

Erdursun reminded that 85 percent of Turkey consists of fixed-income earners. Stating that an interim raise for the minimum wage does not appear likely, Erdursun said, "The state will not provide an interim raise to the minimum wage. Even if the government decides on an interim raise, it is a situation that also concerns employers. I do not think such an increase will happen."

Touching upon unemployment benefit applications, Erdursun stated that as of 2025, layoffs have increased, as seen in these figures. Emphasizing that job losses are occurring very rapidly, Erdursun said, "We are living in a period where layoffs are taking place; I do not think employers will look favorably upon an interim raise for the minimum wage."

Erdursun outlined the worst-case scenario if no improvement, such as a flat-rate raise or welfare share, is made to salaries beyond the inflation adjustment. Erdursun concluded his words as follows:

"If there is no wage adjustment, we will long for 2025 in 2026. Because the Central Bank announces that it will meet its year-end target of 24 percent. If there is no additional raise, there will be an increase of between 5 and 9 percent for these wages in January 2026. If there is no change, the lowest pension will be around 18,000 liras in 2026."