Dollar forecast from major bank! How much will it be?
Credit Agricole has projected that the dollar/TL exchange rate will reach 35.50 TL in the first quarter of 2025 and 36 TL by the end of the year. While an economic cooling is expected as Turkey works to address its external imbalances, the bank stated that monetary policy is moving in the right direction, though inflation is expected to remain high.
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In the "2025 Emerging Markets Outlook Report" published by Credit Agricole, it is projected that the Turkish Lira will experience a depreciation of less than 4 percent over a one-year period.
The report states that Turkey and Egypt, which have high interest rates among emerging markets, are expected to continue benefiting from their stabilizing policies, while also noting that Turkey is expected to enter an economic cooling phase that will help address its external imbalances.
The bank projects the dollar/TL exchange rate to be 35.50 TL at the end of March 2025, 35.70 TL at the end of June, and 36 TL by the end of September and the end of the year.
Stating that the Turkish Lira will experience more limited depreciation compared to signals from the forward market, the bank recommended long positions in the TL for the first half of the year.
According to the report in Ekonomim, the bank's assessment regarding Turkey indicates that monetary policy is on the right track, but progress in price stability is slow.
The report notes that while the disinflation process continues, inflation remains generally high, and while the policy set relies heavily on tight monetary policy, it suggests that the government would benefit from focusing more on fiscal policy.
Stating that the economy slowed down in 2024, Credit Agricole said that the slowdown in economic activity in Turkey is not sufficient and that further cooling is needed.
Credit Agricole, which stated that one of the fundamental questions for 2025 is whether the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will remain independent or be forced to lower interest rates under political pressure as it has in the past, also expressed that this situation remains a key risk.
The price of the US Dollar (USD) is currently 34.9868 TL. The US Dollar (USD) has changed by 0.13% in the last 24 hours and 0.42% in the last week. The US Dollar (USD) reached its highest level of the last month on 17.12.2024 at 34.9881. The US Dollar (USD) reached its lowest level of the last month on 18.11.2024 at 34.3142.