Is Mehmet Şimşek being unplugged? Erdoğan might give up on him on that day!
The economic administration's tight fiscal policies appear set to continue until the upcoming elections. However, behind-the-scenes discussions are questioning when the program implemented by Mehmet Şimşek will be 'breached' and how Erdoğan's stance will take shape during this process.
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Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek continues to face criticism due to the tight fiscal policies he has implemented in recent months and the inconsistencies between Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) data and inflation targets. The inability to bring inflation targets to desired levels and the reactions, particularly from low-income segments, are among the most significant challenges facing Şimşek's economic management.
This situation has also led to criticism from the AKP-aligned media.
WHEN WILL MEHMET ŞİMŞEK LOOSEN THE BELT?
According to reports from within AKP circles, it is stated that Şimşek's primary goal is to regulate inflation data by 2026 and establish a sustainable economic structure by the 2027 election period.
However, it is noted that these goals are met with resistance by a segment that opposes the implementation of tight fiscal policies and austerity measures. Expectations for a deviation in Şimşek's economic program and the loosening of tight policies have increased in relation to the 2027 elections. According to information leaked from ruling party circles, there is a focus on the possibility that the policies implemented by Şimşek could change over time, and that some economic relief measures—labeled as "voter bribes"—might be introduced, especially before the 2027 election period.
Another detail being discussed in AKP circles is that economic tightening will be eased ahead of a possible early election in 2027.
In this context, the preparation of an election package that includes items such as increasing housing and auto loans, improving minimum wage and pension payments, and granting raises to public employees is on the agenda.
These developments do not particularly align with the current tight policies of the economic administration. It is also being discussed behind the scenes that if Minister Şimşek opposes the loosening of the program during this process, President Erdoğan might abandon him.
Within ruling party circles, it is stated that Şimşek and his team must successfully manage the current economic order until the election process; otherwise, Erdoğan may opt for a new roadmap.
SPECIAL ELECTION STRATEGY: IN THE PREPARATION PHASE
Preparations for the early elections expected to be held in 2027 are also underway. Sources within the AKP are sharing some information regarding the economic regulations to be made before the elections.
In this framework, specific improvements are envisioned, particularly for public employees, retirees, and low-income citizens. These improvements are evaluated as a strategy aimed specifically at increasing voter support. However, criticisms are also being voiced that such economic regulations are incompatible with current fiscal policies and would mean a breach of the tight program implemented by Minister Şimşek.
The general line of the economic administration is shaped in line with Şimşek's goal of implementing a sustainable economic program until 2026.
However, according to what is being discussed behind the scenes, it is stated that Şimşek needs time until 2026 to bring inflation data to the desired level. Furthermore, it is expressed that the economic relief to be provided during the election period is currently being evaluated only as a "tactic." The rise of opposing views regarding Şimşek's tight fiscal policies and the increasingly vocal reactions to these policies within the ruling party could become a critical turning point for the Turkish economy.
WILL ERDOĞAN AND ŞİMŞEK PART WAYS?
Finally, another scenario coming to the fore behind the scenes is that Mehmet Şimşek and Erdoğan could reach a parting of ways before the 2027 elections.
Some commentators suggest that if the tight fiscal program implemented by Şimşek conflicts with the economic steps President Erdoğan intends to take before the election period, it is within the realm of possibility that the two figures will go their separate ways. The discussion centers on the idea that Şimşek must continue the program he has implemented until the election, or else Erdoğan may abandon him.