Minimum wage forecast from economist Muhammet Bayram

Millions of employees have turned their eyes to the raise to be made in January for the minimum wage. Economist Muhammet Bayram has announced his forecast for the minimum wage floor price.

Speaking to Milliyet regarding the matter, Economist Muhammet Bayram stated the following:

"According to the most recently announced inflation rate, the three-month cumulative figure corresponds to 25 percent. The inflation figures for the next three months have not yet been determined. However, we can say that the upward trend related to inflation has come to an end."

The inflation rate for July was 9.49. Subsequently, it came in at 9.09 percent in August. In September, the rate of increase slowed by nearly half, announced at 4.75 percent. This corresponds to a cumulative total increase of 25 percent. Our civil servants and civil servant retirees will also receive the salary difference resulting from the collective bargaining agreement here.

With the 25 percent inflation adjustment, they will receive a total increase corresponding to approximately 34 percent. This is because they had already received a 6 percent adjustment in June. When 6 percent is subtracted from the 25 percent inflation adjustment, it leaves 19 percent. When the 15 percent raise they are set to receive in January is added to that 19 percent, it corresponds to 34 percent.

Civil servants and civil servant retirees currently have a collective bargaining agreement entitlement of around 34 percent; our state may also add a welfare share increase here.

As for the minimum wage, the wage here is not determined solely by inflation. It should be determined in accordance with cost-of-living indices and competitive conditions; it must be a competitive price because our exporters and producers are tired of inflation. Fixed-income and lower-middle-income earners, on the other hand, feel inflation more acutely. The burden of inflation needs to be shifted a bit more onto capital rather than labor.

“BETWEEN 15 THOUSAND 500 TL AND 16 THOUSAND TL AT THE LOWEST”

Record-level increases had been made to the minimum wage recently. Here, we see that the inflation difference for the last six months will be around 40 percent. I think the net minimum wage could currently be between 15 thousand 500 TL and 16 thousand TL at the lowest.

Türk-İş has released its hunger and poverty threshold figures. The numbers have risen significantly. The hunger threshold has reached around 14 thousand TL. The cost of living for a family of 4 has exceeded 40 thousand TL. Even if these are not the figures announced by TUIK, they can be considered as a reference.

In previous periods, there was a study by the Ministry of Labor. The question of 'what should the minimum wage be?' was being explored there. All of these will be brought together, and the Minimum Wage Determination Commission will conduct negotiations."

I believe there will be other issues as well. One of these is the fixing of tax brackets. Currently, there is a taxation system on wages starting from 15 percent and going up to 40 percent. By fixing this, purchasing power could be increased further.