Minimum wage negotiations begin: What will the 2025 raise rate be?

The Minimum Wage Determination Commission is starting its work. The 15-member commission will include representatives from TÜRK-İŞ, representing the workers; TİSK, representing the employers; and the Ministry of Labor and Social Security. Four workers earning the minimum wage will also attend the meeting.

The commission consists of 5 worker representatives, 5 employer representatives, and 5 government representatives. Decisions are made by majority vote. Due to the structure of the commission, the government is the deciding factor in the new minimum wage.

The minimum wage hike also affects many items such as unemployment benefits, severance pay, general health insurance premiums, intern wages, and sick leave payments.

According to Social Security Institution (SGK) data, nearly 7 million people in Turkey work for the minimum wage. A similar number of employees earn slightly above the minimum wage. Having received only one raise for 2024, minimum wage earners are forced to live under the burden of inflation and close to the hunger threshold. For this reason, all eyes are on the 2025 minimum wage increase rate.

Statement from unions

Prior to the commission meetings, the labor union confederations TÜRK-İŞ, HAK-İŞ, and DİSK issued a joint statement demanding that the minimum wage be determined in a way that allows workers and their families to live humanely and in accordance with human dignity, based on current economic and social conditions.

Erdoğan had said, 'We will not let them be crushed'

President Erdoğan, in a statement regarding the issue in recent days, said, "We will not let our retirees, our civil servants, our minimum wage earners, or any segment of society be crushed by inflation. This was the picture for the last 22 years, it was the same for the last year, and it has not changed this year."

Discussions also continue regarding whether the raise rate will be based on the target inflation rather than actual inflation. The Central Bank has raised its 2024 year-end inflation forecast from 38 percent to 44 percent, and its 2025 forecast to 21 percent. The Central Bank anticipates a 25 percent increase in the minimum wage.

Estimates

If a 25 percent raise is implemented, the minimum wage will be 21,250 liras. If the minimum wage is increased by the 44 percent target rate projected by the Central Bank for this year, it will reach 24,483 liras. If the 21 percent raise, which is the Central Bank's 2025 target, is applied, it will rise to 20,572 liras.

In previous years, the minimum wage was determined once a year at the beginning of the year. In 2022, it was determined twice a year for the first time, and the minimum wage was exempted from taxes. With the two raises made in 2022 and 2023, the annual raise rate exceeded 80 percent. In 2024, however, a raise was made only once a year. At the beginning of the year, the minimum wage was set at 20,002 liras gross and 17,002 liras net, with a 49 percent increase.

CHP had called for the minimum wage to be at least 30,000 liras

The Central Bank anticipates a 25 percent increase in the minimum wage. Deutsche Bank had estimated it would be 23,000 TL. Economists are making raise estimates ranging between 25 and 40 percent. In government circles, an increase of around 36-37 percent for the minimum wage is being considered.

The IMF, on the other hand, advocates for a low increase, claiming that high increases cause inflation.

The raise was once a year

In previous years, the minimum wage was determined once a year at the beginning of the year. In 2022, it was determined twice a year for the first time, and the minimum wage was exempted from taxes.

With the two raises made in 2022 and 2023, the annual raise rate exceeded 80 percent.

In 2024, however, a raise was made only once a year. At the beginning of the year, the minimum wage was set at 20,002 liras gross and 17,002 liras net, with a 49 percent increase.