September inflation exceeds expectations: Scenarios for civil servant and retiree salaries have changed! Here are the raise forecasts...

The inflation rate announced for September came in above market expectations. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), September inflation was recorded at 3.23 percent.

Thus, an upward trend has been observed again after the last 16 months. This development has led to assessments that year-end targets will once again not be met.

NEW FORECASTS FOR YEAR-END INFLATION

According to the Central Bank's survey of market participants, year-end inflation is estimated at 29.86 percent. In a survey conducted by Anadolu Agency with economists, this rate was projected at 30.09 percent.

The forecasts have also brought new raise rates for civil servant and retiree salaries in the first half of 2025 to the agenda.

For civil servants, who received a 15.57 percent raise in their salaries in July, the first raise of the new year has begun to take shape. If inflation reaches the 30 percent level by the end of the year, civil servant salaries are expected to increase by 17.79 percent.

According to this scenario, the lowest civil servant salary will rise from 50,503 liras to 59,487 liras. The lowest civil servant pension is estimated to be around 22,670 liras.

RETIREE SALARY INCREASES WILL REMAIN LIMITED

Salaries for SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees will be determined based on the 6-month inflation rate. If year-end inflation reaches 30 percent, retiree pensions will be increased by 11.42 percent.

The lowest retiree pension, which was 16,681 liras in July, is expected to rise to 18,809 liras in January.