SGK expert shares latest forecast: Will Erdoğan intervene for the minimum wage?

The Minimum Wage Determination Commission held its first meeting to determine the minimum wage for 2025.

Minister of Labor and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan said at the opening of the meeting, "We hope for a fair minimum wage to be determined."

FORECAST FROM THE SGK EXPERT

Chief SGK expert İsa Karakaş made notable statements regarding the 2025 minimum wage during a broadcast he participated in on the Türkiye Gazetesi YouTube channel.

Karakaş stated that the minimum wage determination process concerns not only employees but also employers closely. Emphasizing that the number of people in Turkey living on minimum wage is approaching half the population, Karakaş made the following assessments:

"The minimum wage is a critical issue for employers as well as millions of employees. When we consider the economic conditions in our country, the demands of employers and workers, and government policies, there is an expectation of a minimum wage around 22,500 TL. This estimate of ours is based on current inflation data and hunger threshold analyses."

REMINDED OF THE HUNGER THRESHOLD

Stating that the hunger threshold reached 20,562 TL as of November, Karakaş expressed that this situation should be taken into account when determining the minimum wage:

"The hunger threshold will rise to at least 24,000-25,000 TL in February. It is against human rights for the minimum wage to remain below the hunger threshold. However, determining a realistic minimum wage is a very challenging process due to the current economic structure. According to TÜRK-İŞ research, the cost of living for a single worker is 26,712 TL. However, due to the government's tight monetary policy and the SME-weighted economic structure, it does not seem very possible for this figure to be implemented."

Karakaş stated that the minimum wage is a serious cost factor not only for employees but also for employers. Expressing that the cost of a 25,000 TL minimum wage to the employer would exceed 1,000 dollars, he said:

"Our expectation is for the minimum wage to be around 22,500 TL. In this case, the cost to the employer exceeds 32,525 TL, which is over 930 dollars. When the government's inflation targets and the demands of employers are also taken into account, this figure seems like a balanced solution."

WILL ERDOĞAN INTERVENE?

Karakaş predicted that President Erdoğan could intervene at the last minute to increase the minimum wage up to 23,500 TL:

"With the intervention of our President, a slight increase in the minimum wage can be expected. This figure will increase the welfare of employees to some extent and ensure that employers remain under manageable costs."