Welfare share and inflation: How much will the 2025 pension increase be?

Millions of pensioners have turned their eyes to the salary increase rate. Pensioners receive an increase equal to the 6-month inflation rate. With the determination of the 5-month inflation difference, all eyes have turned to the 6-month inflation data, which will be decisive for the salary increase rate for civil servants and pensioners.

The total inflation for the months of July, August, September, October, and November was calculated as 14.57 percent. Those whose base salary remains below the lowest pension are not affected by the increase. Another factor that could affect the increase rates is the welfare share. Pensioners who have a possibility of receiving a 0 percent increase are wondering whether a welfare share will be added.

THOSE WITH A BASE SALARY BELOW 12 THOUSAND 500 TL

The salary of a pensioner with a base salary of 15 thousand 400 TL will become 17 thousand 645 liras with the 5-month inflation difference, without any welfare share. The salary of someone with a base salary of 11 thousand liras has changed to 12 thousand 604 liras in the new year. As of today, the salary of a pensioner with a base salary of 10 thousand 200 TL will be 11 thousand 687 TL with the same November inflation data if no welfare share is provided.

Since this figure is below the base pension of 12 thousand 500 TL, the update made as of today will not be reflected positively in this pensioner's pocket. SGK expert İsa Karakaş, in his article in Türkiye Gazetesi, drew attention to the danger of the increase in the base salary and calculated the new pension increase.

HOW MUCH WILL PENSIONS BE IN 2025?

The SGK expert calculated how much the pension increase would be as follows:

"In the Medium-Term Program, the 2024 inflation target has been updated to 41.5 percent. The Central Bank's inflation forecast is 44 percent. However, October and November inflation came in above the forecasts. Considering the remaining one month of inflation data, we can say that annual inflation will not be below 45 percent.

Accordingly, it has become highly probable that an update of around 16.5 percent will be made for SSK and Bağ-Kur pensioners in January, excluding the welfare share.

Since the pension increases of Chambers and Bank Funds are also indexed to the increase of SSK pensioners in accordance with SGK legislation, they will also receive the same amount of increase.

Accordingly, it has become highly probable that the amount received by a Bağ-Kur pensioner with a salary of 13 thousand 730 TL will rise to 15 thousand 995 TL, and the salary of an SSK pensioner with a salary of 18 thousand 110 TL will rise to 21 thousand 098 TL in January.

WILL A WELFARE SHARE BE GIVEN TO PENSIONERS?

Last July, the pensions of those whose base salary, that is, their actual salary without treasury support, was below the base pension of 10 thousand TL, were increased to 12 thousand 500 TL.

Considering that the economic management will continue to implement tight monetary policy to meet the targets, it is obvious that the government will not be generous regarding the welfare share or state support in the updates to be made.

HOW MUCH WILL THE LOWEST PENSION BE?

My prediction is that the base pensions of pensioners with low base salaries will be raised to a maximum level of 15 thousand TL.

The regulation regarding treasury support for those with low base salaries will emerge in January 2025.