Global markets focus on Fed interest rate decision

Global markets are seeing a mixed trend amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep its policy rate steady for longer than expected. Today, all eyes are on the Fed's interest rate decision and the statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the meeting.

Macroeconomic data released in the US continues to influence the direction of the markets. The JOLTS job openings figure was 9 million 26 thousand in December 2023, while the Consumer Confidence Index rose by 6.8 points monthly in January to 114.8.

Analysts stated that the US economy has not slowed down as expected despite hawkish steps, noting that this situation has pushed back forecasts regarding interest rate cuts. They noted that for the first interest rate cut, initially expected in March, May is now being priced in with an 88 percent probability.

Today, the Fed is expected to keep its interest rate steady. The monetary policy statement and Powell's remarks could increase volatility in asset prices.

ADP private sector employment data to be released in the US is also important. Microsoft and Alphabet, which announced their financial results, saw their revenues increase. Boeing's financial results will be announced today.

While a buying-weighted trend continues in bond markets, the US 10-year bond yield has stabilized at the 4.01 percent level.

The ounce price of gold decreased by 0.1 percent to 2,033 dollars, and the barrel price of Brent crude oil fell by 0.3 percent to 82.2 dollars.

Yesterday, on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq index fell by 0.76 percent and the S&P 500 index by 0.06 percent, while the Dow Jones index hit a record high.

There is a buying-weighted trend in European stock markets. Inflation data to be released in Germany is important.

While GDP remained flat in the Eurozone, GDP in Germany contracted by 0.3 percent.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index recorded an increase of 0.44 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany by 0.18 percent, the MIB 30 index in Italy by 1.29 percent, and the CAC 40 index in France by 0.48 percent. Index futures in Europe started with a mixed trend.

In Asia, markets are following a selling-weighted trend, with the exception of Japan. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) signaled that it is close to interest rate hikes. The manufacturing industry in China continues to contract.

While the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.4 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea fell by 0.2 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China by 0.8 percent, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 1.3 percent.

At Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 index completed the day with a flat trend at 8,474.30 points.

The Dollar/TL, after completing the day at the 30.3504 level yesterday, is trading at the 30.3640 level at the opening of the interbank market today.

Analysts stated that they will follow a busy data agenda, primarily the foreign trade balance domestically, and the Fed's interest rate decision, Powell's statements, inflation in Germany, and ADP private sector employment in the US abroad, noting that from a technical perspective, the 8,530 and 8,570 levels are resistance, and 8,400 and 8,250 points are support for the BIST 100 index.